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BMI View: With another production shut-in only narrowly averted, the recently positive diplomatic overtures between Sudan and South Sudan are encouraging but do little to resolve the long - standing tensions that led Juba to secede in 2011. As a result, we retain a cautious and largely bearish view on the long - term outlook for the sector, even though we expect a strong rebound in production in 2014-2015 - notwithstanding elevated political risks. The longer - term outlook is bearish given we expect output from South Sudan's key oil producing blocks to head lower f rom 2017. Despite ambitious plans and the start of small fields in Sudan, the upstream outlook is even more bearish and we expect combined output for both countries to gradually head lower from the latter half of the decade.
The main trends and developments we highlight for Sudan and South Sudan's oil and gas sectors are:
Our view that border and security issues could again interrupt the flow of South Sudan's oil to market played out. Only three months after restarting, oil production in Sudan again threatened to close its pipelines to South Sudanese crude which would force another production shut-in. The dispute centred on tensions related to Juba's alleged support for rebel groups. The dispute, although resolved by last minute diplomatic efforts, underscores the precarious and dependence between South Sudan and Sudan. We expect both countries to suffer under another production stoppage, and we are currently watching events play out with a view toward further revising our forecasts downward.
We expect combined output to average 220,000 barrels per day (b/d) for 2013, rising to 370,000b/d in 2014 as production continues to recover. However, this number factors in delays and challenges as production rebounds from the shut-in over 2012. Yet the medium- to long-term outlook is less than optimistic, given that much of current production was sourced from ageing fields and the hasty shut...
The Sudan & South Sudan Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Sudan, South Sudan including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.
BMI's Sudan & South Sudan Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Sudanese, Sudanese oil and gas industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Sudan, South Sudan to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Sudanese, Sudanese oil and gas market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Sudanese, Sudanese oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Sudan, South Sudan.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.
Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.
Business Environment Ratings
BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Ratings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.
The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Ratings products.
Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook
Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2017 for oil, gas and oil products
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2017 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs
Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)
Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)
BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts
BMI forecasts to end-2017 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.