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Trinidad and Tobago Oil and Gas Report Q3 2011
Management Report
Published: July 2011
Pages: 87
Tables: For full details, please email keithw@cmsinfo.com
From: GBP 330.00 Buy Now!
Research from: Business Monitor International
Sector: Oil & Gas
The Trinidad & Tobago Oil and Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts to end-2015 for Trinidad & Tobago including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, multinational and national companies, and changes in the regulatory environment.
BMI's Trinidad & Tobago Oil and Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Trinidadian oil and gas industry.
The latest Trinidad & Tobago Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for just 0.48% of Latin American regional oil demand by 2015, while providing 1.14% of supply. Latin American regional use averaged an estimated 8.41mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2010. It should rise to 8.63mn b/d in 2011 and reach 9.30mn b/d by 2015. Regional oil production in 2010 averaged an estimated 9.92mn b/d.It is set to rise to 12.47mn b/d by 2015. Oil exports have been slipping, because demand growth has exceeded the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average of 3.24mn b/d. This total fell to an estimated 1.52mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to rebound to 3.05mn b/d in 2015. The principal exporters will be Mexico, Venezuela, Colombia and Brazil.
In terms of natural gas, the region in 2010 consumed an estimated 189.5bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 230.8bcm targeted for 2015. Production of an estimated 203bcm in 2010 should reach 254bcm in 2015, and implies more than 20bcm of net exports at the end of the period. Trinidad & Tobago (T&T) contributed an estimated 11.45% to 2010 regional gas consumption, while producing around 20.71%. By 2015, it is expected to consume 11.58% of the region’s gas, contributing 20.28% to supply.
Global GDP growth in 2011 is forecast at 3.6%, down from 4.3% in 2010. Growth in both the US and eurozone should be marginally higher than 2010, while Chinese economic expansion will slow and Japan’s growth will slump to 0.7% as a result of the devastating earthquake and tsunami in March 2011. Our oil price forecast for 2011 is US$98.90/bbl for the OPEC Basket, giving Brent at US$103/bbl and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at US$92.30, although these differentials are subject to change.
T&T’s real GDP in 2010 rose by 0.5%, with an average annual increase of 3.1% expected in 2010-2015. The emphasis of several major international oil company (IOC) partners in the state in the hydrocarbons segment is on gas for liquefied natural gas (LNG) export, with limited potential for oil production. We are assuming oil and gas liquids production of no more than 142,000b/d by 2015, with the country expected to pump 145,000b/d in 2011. Domestic consumption is forecast to increase by around 4-5% per annum to 2015, implying demand of 45,000b/d by then. Gas production is forecast to increase from an estimated 42bcm in 2010 to 52bcm over the period, with net exports growing from an estimated 20bcm to 25bcm by 2015, in the form of LNG.
Between 2010 and 2020, we are forecasting a decline in T&T’s oil and gas liquids production of 10%, with liquids volumes falling steadily from an estimated 145,420b/d to 131,000b/d, largely in the form of gas liquids associated with gas field developments. Oil consumption between 2010 and 2020 is set to increase by 62.9%, with growth averaging 5% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 57,000b/d by 2020. Gas production is expected to rise from an estimated 42bcm in 2010 to a possible 55bcm in 2020. With demand growth of 57.3%, this implies export potential rising from an estimated 20bcm to a peak of 25bcm in 2015, before easing to 21bcm by 2020. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix.
T&T now shares fifth place with Venezuela in BMI’s composite Business Environment (BE) ratings, which combine upstream and downstream scores. It ranks fifth, above Argentina, in BMI’s updated upstream Business Environment ratings, thanks largely to its natural gas resource base and rising output. It stands just one point clear of Argentina, but its combination of attractive licensing terms, competitive landscape and moderate country risk should be sufficient to keep it safe from hostile advances over the medium term. T&T shares fifth place with Mexico in BMI’s downstream Business Environment ratings, reflecting its modest level of oil consumption, refining capacity expansion plans and relatively high retail site intensity. Chile, six points below, should pose no threat over the near term.