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Singapore Autos Report Q3 2010
Management Report
Published: June 2010
Pages: 40
Tables: For full details, please email keithw@cmsinfo.com
From: GBP 353.33 Buy Now!
Research from: Business Monitor International
Sector: Automotive
After a particularly bad year for new vehicle sales in 2009, when sales were worse than forecast, a recovery still looks far from guaranteed. Total vehicle sales actually ended the year down 26.6%, led by a 34% drop in commercial vehicle sales. Sales of cars under 1.6-litres and taxis fell 24.6%, while sales of cars over 1.6-litres 30.7%. BMI has revised its sales forecast for 2010, given the lower than expected base from 2009. Our revised forecast for new vehicle registrations in 2010 is for a rise of 5% year-on-year (yo- y), to a total of 93,433 registrations. The base effect should kick in more strongly from 2011, alongside a gradual acceleration in economic growth to respectable levels for a developed state in 2011-2014. Sales for Q110 are still low at 19,733 units, which is 25% lower than Q109. However, we retain our forecast for the moment, based on our expectations for a strong surge in GDP growth, from 2% in 2009 to 7% in 2010. There will also be increased tourism activity, which may feed through to rental fleet sales. Against this backdrop, we forecast that growth in new vehicle registrations will average 5% over the forecast period as the quota system will still reign in potential sales.
After a particularly bad year for new vehicle sales in 2009, when sales were worse than forecast, a recovery still looks far from guaranteed. Total vehicle sales actually ended the year down 26.6%, led by a 34% drop in commercial vehicle sales. Sales of cars under 1.6-litres and taxis fell 24.6%, while sales of cars over 1.6-litres 30.7%. BMI has revised its sales forecast for 2010, given the lower than expected base from 2009. Our revised forecast for new vehicle registrations in 2010 is for a rise of 5% year-on-year (yo- y), to a total of 93,433 registrations. The base effect should kick in more strongly from 2011, alongside a gradual acceleration in economic growth to respectable levels for a developed state in 2011-2014. Sales for Q110 are still low at 19,733 units, which is 25% lower than Q109. However, we retain our forecast for the moment, based on our expectations for a strong surge in GDP growth, from 2% in 2009 to 7% in 2010. There will also be increased tourism activity, which may feed through to rental fleet sales. Against this backdrop, we forecast that growth in new vehicle registrations will average 5% over the forecast period as the quota system will still reign in potential sales.
The market's decline is reflected in Singapore's 11th place in BMI's Business Environment Ratings for the automotive industry in Asia Pacific with a score of 48.5 from a possible 100, despite an increase in its country structure score from 76.5 to 90.0. Singapore, along with Thailand, has the highest number of free trade agreements completed for any Asian market. However, in industry terms, the lack of domestic production facilities and the imposition of vehicle quotas which restrict potential sales growth weigh on the market's overall rating. Nevertheless, Singapore has climbed three places since our first ratings were produced.
In 2009, Toyota Motor, which includes the Lexus brand, continued its dominance of the overall market with a 25.49% share of new vehicle registrations. Toyota remains well ahead of Honda Motor, which sits in second place with a market share of 14%. Hyundai Motor is in third place with 9.6%, while affiliate Kia Motors is fourth with 6.24%, up from 4.8% in H109. Mercedes-Benz pipped Nissan Motor in the last two months of the year to take fifth.
The market's decline is reflected in Singapore's 11th place in BMI's Business Environment Ratings for the automotive industry in Asia Pacific with a score of 48.5 from a possible 100, despite an increase in its country structure score from 76.5 to 90.0. Singapore, along with Thailand, has the highest number of free trade agreements completed for any Asian market. However, in industry terms, the lack of domestic production facilities and the imposition of vehicle quotas which restrict potential sales growth weigh on the market's overall rating. Nevertheless, Singapore has climbed three places since our first ratings were produced.
In 2009, Toyota Motor, which includes the Lexus brand, continued its dominance of the overall market with a 25.49% share of new vehicle registrations. Toyota remains well ahead of Honda Motor, which sits in second place with a market share of 14%. Hyundai Motor is in third place with 9.6%, while affiliate Kia Motors is fourth with 6.24%, up from 4.8% in H109. Mercedes-Benz pipped Nissan Motor in the last two months of the year to take fifth.