Free Report:
The Oil Industry is here to stay: A worldwide assessment of current issues
Free Energy Market Research Reports
Automotive
Batteries & Fuel Cells
Chemical Industry & Markets
Coal
Energy
Maps
Metals
Nuclear
Oil & Gas
Petroleum
Power
Renewables
Custom Research
Energy Events & Conferences
Contact
Terms & Conditions
Privacy
Home >
Mexico Oil and Gas Report Q3 2011
Management Report
Published: July 2011
Pages: 80
Tables: For full details, please email keithw@cmsinfo.com
From: GBP 330.00 Buy Now!
Research from: Business Monitor International
Sector: Oil & Gas
The Mexico Oil and Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts to end-2015 for Mexico including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, multinational and national companies, and changes in the regulatory environment.
BMI's Mexico Oil and Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Mexican oil and gas industry.
This latest Mexico Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 24.43% of Latin America regional oil demand by 2015, while providing 21.86% of supply. Latin American regional use averaged an estimated 8.41mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2010. It should rise to 8.63mn b/d in 2011 and reach 9.30mn b/d by 2015. Regional oil production in 2010 averaged an estimated 9.92mn b/d. It is set to rise to 12.47mn b/d by 2015. Oil exports have been slipping, because demand growth has exceeded the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average of 3.24mn b/d. This total fell to an estimated 1.52mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to rebound to 3.17mn b/d in 2015. The principal exporters will be Mexico, Venezuela, Colombia and Brazil.In terms of natural gas, the region in 2010 consumed an estimated 189.5bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 230.8bcm targeted for 2015. Production of an estimated 203bcm in 2010 should reach 254bcm in 2015, and implies more than 20bcm of net exports at the end of the period. Mexico consumed an estimated 33.08% of the region’s gas in 2010, with its market share for 2015 forecast at 29.47%. In 2010, the country produced an estimated 25.32% of the region’s gas and is expected to contribute 21.07% by 2015.
The 2010 full-year outturn was US$77.45 per barrel (bbl) for OPEC crude, which delivered an average for North Sea Brent of US$80.34/bbl and for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) of US$79.61/bbl. The BMI price target of US$77 was reached thanks to the early onset of particularly cold weather, which drove up demand for and the price of heating oil during the closing weeks of the year.
Global GDP growth in 2011 is forecast at 3.6%, down from 4.3% in 2010. Growth in the eurozone should be marginally higher than 2010, while Chinese and US economic expansion will slow and Japan’s growth will slump to 0.7% as a result of the devastating earthquake and tsunami in March 2011. BMI calculates Mexican real GDP increased by 5.5% in 2010, with average annual growth of 3.2% forecast for 2010- 2015.
Unless the government introduces a radical shift in energy policy, we expect state-owned Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) to retain full responsibility for oil production, without international oil company (IOC) involvement. We are assuming oil and gas liquids production of no more than around 2.7mn b/d by 2015, with the country pumping an estimated 2.95mn b/d in 2010. Beyond the weakness of 2009, consumption is forecast to increase by no more than 1.5% per annum to 2015, implying demand of 2.3mn b/d by the end of the forecast period. The net export capability would therefore be approximately 450,000b/d by 2015. Gas production is forecast to increase from an estimated 51.4bcm in 2010 to 53.5bcm over the period, with 14.5bcm of net imports required by 2015.
Between 2010 and 2020, we forecast a decline in Mexican oil production, with crude volumes falling steadily to 2.29mn b/d in 2020. Oil consumption between 2010 and 2020 is set to increase by 11%, with growth slowing to an assumed 1% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 2.39mn b/d by 2020. Gas production is expected to rise gradually, from an estimated 51.4bcm in 2010 to 61bcm in 2020. With demand growth of 55%, this implies a need for imports to rise from an estimated 11.5bcm to 15.4bcm between 2010 and 2020. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
Mexico holds eighth place, behind Ecuador, in BMI’s composite Business Environment Ratings (BERs), which combine upstream and downstream scores. The country now shares ninth and last place with Chile in BMI’s updated upstream ratings, in spite of its vast hydrocarbons resource base. It lags well behind Bolivia and Ecuador, so is unlikely to move further up the league table over the short term. Although the absolute resource base may be large, the output growth outlook is poor, reserves-to-production ratios (RPR) are low, state ownership of oil assets is absolute and country risk is relatively high. Mexico ranks equal fifth with Trinidad in BMI’s downstream ratings, reflecting its high levels of oil and gas consumption, refining capacity and moderate country risk, plus low levels of forecast oil and gas demand growth. Chile is six points behind and unlikely to mount a near-term challenge.