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Bolivia Oil and Gas Report Q3 2011
Management Report
Published: July 2011
Pages: 66
Tables: For full details, please email keithw@cmsinfo.com
From: GBP 330.00 Buy Now!
Research from: Business Monitor International
Sector: Oil & Gas
The Bolivia Oil and Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts to end-2015 for Bolivia including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, multinational and national companies, and changes in the regulatory environment.
BMI's Bolivia Oil and Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Bolivian oil and gas industry.
The new Bolivia Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 0.75% of Latin American regional oil demand by 2015, while providing 0.47% of supply. Latin American regional use averaged an estimated 8.41mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2010. It should rise to 8.63mn b/d in 2011 and reach 9.30mn b/d by 2015. Regional oil production in 2010 averaged an estimated 9.92mn b/d. It is set to rise to 12.47mn b/d by 2015. Oil exports have been slipping, because demand growth has exceeded the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average of 3.24mn b/d. This total fell to an estimated 1.52mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to rebound to 3.05mn b/d in 2015. The principal exporters will be Mexico, Venezuela, Colombia and Brazil.In terms of natural gas, the region in 2010 consumed an estimated 189.5bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 230.8bcm targeted for 2015. Production of an estimated 203bcm in 2010 should reach 254bcm in 2015, and implies more than 20bcm of net exports at the end of the period. Bolivia’s share of gas consumption was an estimated 1.55% in 2010, while its share of production was 6.51%. By 2015, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 1.55%, with the country accounting for 7.48% of supply.
The 2010 full-year outturn was US$77.45 per barrel (bbl) for OPEC crude, which delivered an average for North Sea Brent of US$80.34/bbl and for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) of US$79.61/bbl. The BMI price target of US$77 was reached thanks to the early onset of particularly cold weather, which drove up demand for and the price of heating oil during the closing weeks of the year.
Taking into account the risk premium that has been added to crude prices in response to actual and perceived threats to supply, we have now raised our benchmark OPEC basket and Brent price forecasts. We expect Brent crude to average US$106/bbl in 2011, with OPEC basket averaging US$101.90/bbl. Mid-year increases in supply present downside risks to this forecast. In 2012, we expect OPEC basket to average US$95/bbl, with Brent averaging US$97.6/bbl.
Global GDP growth in 2011 is forecast at 3.6%, down from 4.3% in 2010. Growth in both the US and eurozone should be marginally higher than 2010, while Chinese economic expansion will slow and Japan’s growth will slump to 0.7% as a result of the devastating earthquake and tsunami in March 2011.
Our oil price forecast for 2011 is US$98.90/bbl for the OPEC Basket, giving Brent at US$103/bbl and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at US$92.30, although these differentials are subject to change.
BMI calculates Bolivian real GDP growth of 3.4% in 2010, with a 3.4% average annual increase also forecast for 2010-2015. There is increased state control of oil and gas operations, thanks to government policy supportive of re-nationalisation. This means the burden of development falls heavily on stateowned Yacimientos Petrolíferos Fiscales Bolivianos (YPFB) and its few remaining international oil company (IOC) partners. We are assuming oil and gas liquids production of no more than 58,000b/d by 2015, with the country expected to pump 56,000b/d in 2011. Consumption beyond 2010 is forecast to increase by around 2-3% per annum to 2015, implying demand of nearly 70,000b/d by the end of the forecast period.
Between 2010 and 2020, we forecast crude volumes peaking in 2013 at 60,000b/d before falling steadily to 52,000b/d by the end of the forecast period, slightly below 2010’s production of 52,370b/d. While oil production will end the forecast period flat, consumption between 2010 and 2020 is set to increase by 23.4%, with growth slowing to an assumed 2% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 76,800b/d by 2020. Gas production is expected to rise steadily, from an estimated 13.2bcm in 2010 to 22.0bcm by 2020. With demand growth of 48%, this implies that export potential will rise from an estimated 10.3bcm in 2010 to nearly 18.0bcm by 2020. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
A composite Business Environment Rating (BER) of just 38 (out of 100) ranks Bolivia ninth out of 10 countries in BMI’s Latin America universe, reflecting low ratings for both the upstream and downstream business segments. Bolivia takes eighth place in BMI’s upstream ratings, 12 points ahead of Chile and Mexico, and three points behind Ecuador. Its proven gas resources and gas reserves-to-production ratio (RPR) work in the country’s favour, but are undermined by the state’s greater control of assets, deteriorating licensing regime and generally unappealing risk environment. The country is at the foot of the league table in BMI’s updated downstream ratings, reflecting its state-controlled refining and marketing segment, modest capacity and less competitive environment, offset by a relatively low level of retail site intensity and the country’s gas self-sufficiency. Venezuela is immediately ahead of Bolivia in the regional rankings, but the seven-point gap is unlikely to be bridged in the near future.