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Table of Contents

Management Report
Published: February 2009
Pages: 128
Tables: For full details, please email keithw@cmsinfo.com
From: GBP 585.00   Buy Now!
Research from: Business Monitor International
Sector: Oil & Gas

The Russia Oil & Gas Report
Independent 10-year oil and gas industry forecasts for Russia.
Original oil and gas market research and oil and gas sector trend analysis for Russia’s oil and gas industry.
Competitive intelligence, Russian oil and gas company rankings and SWOT analyses on international and domestic oil and gas companies in Russia.
The Russia Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source in 2008, and features latest available data and forecasts for Russia to end- covering headline indicators for oil & gas, LNG, coal and power; company rankings and competitive landscapes covering oil & gas exploration and production in Russia, refining, oil & gas distribution and fuels retailing; and analysis of latest industry developments, trends and regulatory issues within Russia.

Business Monitor International's Russia Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Russian oil and gas industry.


Key Benefits of Report Benchmark BMI’s Independent 10-Year Oil & Gas Industry Forecast for Russia to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Russian oil and gas market.
Target Business Opportunities & Risks in the Russian Oil & Gas Sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Russia.
Exploit The Latest Competitive Russian Oil & Gas Intelligence & Company SWOTS on your competitors and peers through company rankings by sales, market share and ownership structure - includes multi national and national companies in Russia.
CoverageExecutive Summary
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand, refining, coal and power, and primary energy, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview
Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports; overview of industry landscape and key players; assessment of business operating environment and latest regulatory developments.

Business Environment Rankings
A unique comparative study undertaken by BMI on the relative business climates across all regional markets covered. A rankings table highlights the merits of each market from an investor angle, giving scores for indicators such as Oil & Gas Supply and Demand Growth, Oil & Gas Reserves, Licensing Framework and the local Competitive Environment, as well as Economic and Political Risk.

Oil Market Outlook
BMI analyses and forecasts oil prices out to , monitoring supply and demand in terms of oil production and consumption across the region.

BMI 10-Year Industry Forecast
Historic data series and 10-year forecasts to end- for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (000 b/d)
Oil exports (000 b/d), value of oil exports (US$mn - BMI base case) - Oil price (US$/bbl, OPEC basket)
Value of oil exports at constant US$30/bbl and constant US$60/bbl (US$mn)
Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)
Gas exports/(imports) (bcm)
Value of gas exports/(imports) (US$mn); value of gas exports/(imports) at constant US$30/bbl and US$60/bbl (US$mn)
Value of petroleum exports (US$mn); value of petroleum exports at constant US$30/bbl and US$60/bbl (US$mn)
BMI 10-Year Macroeconomic Forecast
BMI forecasts for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape & Rankings
Comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, oil production (‘000 b/d) and % market share, downstream capacity (‘000 b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles & SWOTS
Company profiles, including SWOT analyses, senior executives and full contact details, business activity, products and services, foreign direct investments and projects.

Executive Summary

The latest Russia Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 509.77% of Central and Eastern European (CEE) regional oil demand by 2013, while providing 70.96% of supply. CEE regional oil use of 4.65mn barrels a day (b/d) in 2001 rose to 5.27mn b/d in 2007. It should average 5.36mn b/d in 2008 and then rise to around 5.99mn b/d by 2013. Regional production of 12.92mn b/d in 2007 is forecast to reach 14.96mn b/d by 2013. In terms of natural gas, the region in 2007 consumed 619bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 753bcm targeted for 2013, representing 21.61% growth. Production of 756bcm in 2007 should reach 913bcm in 2013, which implies net exports rising from 137bcm in 2007 to 161bcm by the end of the period. Russia’s share of gas consumption in 2007 was 70.89%, while its share of production was 80.35%. By 2013, its share of demand is forecast to be 65.65%, with the country accounting for 73.36% of supply.

In Q308, we estimate that the OPEC basket price averaged US$113.60 per barrel (bbl) – down around 3.4% from the Q208 level. The OPEC basket price averaged US$112.41/bbl in August and US$97.16/bbl in September. In October, we are assuming an average of around US$113.30/bbl. The estimated Q308 average prices for the main marker blends are now US$115.67/bbl for Brent, US$117.22/bbl for WTI and US$113.43/bbl for Russian Urals (Mediterranean delivery). Our projections for 2008 as a whole are unchanged from the last oil market report. We are still assuming an OPEC basket price average of US$110/bbl for 2008. Based on recent price differentials, this implies Brent at US$113.33/bbl, WTI averaging US$114.58/bbl, and Urals at US$110.36/bbl. Our central view is that the OPEC basket price will fall from US$110/bbl in 2008 to US$96/bbl in 2009, before settling around US$90/bbl in 2010 onwards.

In terms of our refined products forecasts, the BMI composite (Rotterdam, Singapore and New York) global indicator price for unleaded gasoline is expected to average approximately US$117.50/bbl during 2008. Our jet forecast for 2008 is just under US$141/bbl, up from US$89/bbl in 2007. The 60% annual increase represents the second biggest for the key refined products. With gasoil, BMI is assuming a similar gain in 2008, to an average US$137/bbl. Naphtha is expected to exhibit more modest growth, rising from US$75/bbl to US$106/bbl (+41%). During 2009, we are expecting products prices to follow the underlying crude trend lower, but to prove more resilient than the feedstock – implying a recovery in refining margins. Gasoline in 2009 is estimated at US$103/bbl, with jet falling to US$127/bbl. Gasoil is expected to average US$122/bbl, with naphtha slipping to US$91/bbl.

Russian real GDP growth is now estimated by BMI at 6.1% for 2008, down from 8.1% in 2007. We are assuming 3.9% growth in 2009, 4.5% in 2010 and 6.2% in 2011, followed by 6.5% in 2012 and 6.4% in 2013. State-controlled Gazprom has a virtual monopoly over gas transportation and exports. With it being the main provider, we see gas output rising from 607bcm in 2007 to 670bcm by 2013. Russian domestic companies control most of Russia’s oil production, with the exception being Anglo-Russian joint venture (JV) TNK-BP. Rosneft is the main state-controlled oil producer. The companies are expected to deliver 2008 output of crude oil and condensates averaging 9.97mn b/d. Oil production seems likely to grow by no more than 2% per annum over the remainder of the decade. Our 2013 production forecast is for 10.61mn b/d.

Between 2007 and 2018, we are forecasting an increase in Russian oil production of 13.25%, with output rising steadily from 9.98mn b/d in 2007 to 11.30mn b/d by 2018. Oil consumption during the period is forecast to rise by 27.40%, permitting exports peaking at 7.86mn b/d in 2018. Gas consumption is expected to be up from 439bcm to 546bcm by 2018, providing export potential peaking at 209bcm at the end of the forecast period. Details of the new BMI 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report, which provides global, regional and country-specific projections.

Russia occupies fifth place in BMI’s updated Upstream Business Environment rating, in spite of unrivalled hydrocarbons resources. Its oil and gas reserves account for much of the upstream score, but licensing, privatisation and country risk factors are less impressive. Medium-term scope exists for Russia to challenge Poland and Slovenia above it, while Slovakia is no threat below. The country is at the top of the league table in BMI’s updated Downstream Business Environment rating, having edged ahead of Poland. There are a few particularly high scores and a move further away from Poland is possible over the medium term. There are excellent scores for refining capacity, oil and gas demand, population and nominal GDP. Ukraine is four points below Russia in the regional rankings, and there is little chance of it mounting a challenge.

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Table of Contents

Chapter - Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Russia Political SWOT
Russia Economic SWOT
Chapter - Russia Energy Market Overview
Table: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d)
Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d)
Chapter - Oil Price Outlook
Table: Crude Price Assumptions 2007-2008
Revised Forecasts
Table: Oil Price Forecasts
Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions 2008-2009 (US$/bbl)
Table: Oil Product Price Forecasts (US$/bbl)
Chapter - Regional Energy Market Overview
Oil Supply And Demand
Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Consumption (000b/d)
Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Production (000b/d)
Oil: Downstream
Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d)
Gas Supply And Demand
Table: Central/Eastern Europe Gas Consumption (bcm)
Table: Central/Eastern Europe Gas Production (bcm)
Liquefied Natural Gas
Chapter - Business Environment Ranking
Central/Eastern Europe Region
Composite Scores
Table: Regional Upstream Business Environment Rating
Upstream Scores
Downstream Scores
Russia Upstream Rating – Overview
Russia Upstream Rating – Potential Returns
Russia Upstream Rating – Risks to Potential Returns
Russia Downstream Rating – Overview
Russia Downstream Rating – Potential Returns
Russia Downstream Rating – Risks to Potential Returns
Chapter - Business Environment
Legal Framework
Infrastructure
Labour Force
Foreign Investment Policy
Tax Regime
Oil and Gas Reserves
Oil Supply and Demand
Gas Supply and Demand
LNG
Refining and Oil Products Trade
Revenues/Import Costs
Russia Oil & Gas – Historical data & Forecasts
Other Energy
Russia Other Energy – Historical data & Forecasts
Key Risks to BMI's Forecast Scenario
Long-Term Oil & Gas Outlook
Chapter - Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Russia - Economic Activity
Chapter - Competitive Landscape
Executive Summary
Key Domestic & Foreign Companies in the Russian Oil and Gas Sector
Overview/State Role
Gas Prices
Key Upstream Players
Key Downstream Players
Chapter - Company Monitor
Gazprom
Gazprom Neft (formerly Sibneft)
Rosneft
Lukoil
TNK-BP
Tatneft
Total
Imperial Energy
Surgutneftegaz – Summary
Russneft – Summary
ConocoPhillips – Summary
Shell – Summary
Itera – Summary
ExxonMobil – Summary
Transneft – Summary
Sakhalin Energy – Summary
Wintershall – Summary
Sibir Energy – Summary
Others – Summary
Chapter - Glossary of Terms
Oil & Gas Ratings: Revised Methodology
Introduction
Ratings Overview
Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings: Structure
Indicators
Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings: Methodology
Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings: Methodology
Chapter - Oil & Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts
Global Oil Demand
Global Oil Demand (000b/d)
Global Oil Production (000b/d)
Global Oil Supply
Global Gas Demand
Global Gas Demand (bcm)
Global Gas Supply
Global Gas Production (bcm)
Regional Oil Demand
CEE Oil Consumption (000b/d)
Regional Oil Supply
CEE Oil Production (000b/d)
Regional Refining Capacity
CEE Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d)
Regional Gas Demand
CEE Gas Consumption (bcm)
Regional Gas Supply
CEE Gas Production (bcm)
Russia Country Overview
Russia Oil & Gas – Long-Term Forecasts
Russia Other Energy – Long-Term Forecasts
Methodology & Risks To Forecasts
Chapter - BMI Forecast Modelling
How we generate our industry forecasts
Energy Industry
Cross checks
Sources

For full details, please email keithw@cmsinfo.com

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