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Table of Contents

Management Report
Published: April 2009
Pages: 97
Tables: For full details, please email keithw@cmsinfo.com
From: GBP 585.00   Buy Now!
Research from: Business Monitor International
Sector: Oil & Gas

The Oman Oil & Gas Report
Independent 10-year oil and gas industry forecasts for Oman.
Original oil and gas market research and oil and gas sector trend analysis for Oman’s oil and gas industry.
Competitive intelligence, Omani oil and gas company rankings and SWOT analyses on international and domestic oil and gas companies in Oman.
The Oman Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source in 2008, and features latest available data and forecasts for Oman to end- covering headline indicators for oil & gas, LNG, coal and power; company rankings and competitive landscapes covering oil & gas exploration and production in Oman, refining, oil & gas distribution and fuels retailing; and analysis of latest industry developments, trends and regulatory issues within Oman.

Business Monitor International's Oman Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Omani oil and gas industry.


Key Benefits of Report Benchmark BMI’s Independent 10-Year Oil & Gas Industry Forecast for Oman to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Omani oil and gas market.
Target Business Opportunities & Risks in the Omani Oil & Gas Sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Oman.
Exploit The Latest Competitive Omani Oil & Gas Intelligence & Company SWOTS on your competitors and peers through company rankings by sales, market share and ownership structure - includes multi national and national companies in Oman.
CoverageExecutive Summary
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand, refining, coal and power, and primary energy, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview
Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports; overview of industry landscape and key players; assessment of business operating environment and latest regulatory developments.

Business Environment Rankings
A unique comparative study undertaken by BMI on the relative business climates across all regional markets covered. A rankings table highlights the merits of each market from an investor angle, giving scores for indicators such as Oil & Gas Supply and Demand Growth, Oil & Gas Reserves, Licensing Framework and the local Competitive Environment, as well as Economic and Political Risk.

Oil Market Outlook
BMI analyses and forecasts oil prices out to , monitoring supply and demand in terms of oil production and consumption across the region.

BMI 10-Year Industry Forecast
Historic data series and 10-year forecasts to end- for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (000 b/d)
Oil exports (000 b/d), value of oil exports (US$mn - BMI base case) - Oil price (US$/bbl, OPEC basket)
Value of oil exports at constant US$30/bbl and constant US$60/bbl (US$mn)
Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)
Gas exports/(imports) (bcm)
Value of gas exports/(imports) (US$mn); value of gas exports/(imports) at constant US$30/bbl and US$60/bbl (US$mn)
Value of petroleum exports (US$mn); value of petroleum exports at constant US$30/bbl and US$60/bbl (US$mn)
BMI 10-Year Macroeconomic Forecast
BMI forecasts for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape & Rankings
Comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, oil production (‘000 b/d) and % market share, downstream capacity (‘000 b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles & SWOTS
Company profiles, including SWOT analyses, senior executives and full contact details, business activity, products and services, foreign direct investments and projects.

Executive Summary

The latest Oman Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for just 0.64% of Middle East (ME) regional oil demand by 2013, while providing 2.45% of supply. Regional oil use of 8.24mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 rose to an estimated 10.86mn b/d in 2008. It should average 11.09mn b/d in 2009 and then rise to around 12.08mn b/d by 2013. Regional oil production was 22.87mn b/d in 2001, and in 2008 averaged an estimated 25.94mn b/d. It is set to rise to 28.99mn b/d by 2013. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average 14.63mn b/d. This total had risen to an estimated 15.08mn b/d in 2008 and is forecast to reach 16.91mn b/d by 2013.

In terms of natural gas, the region in 2008 consumed an estimated 395bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 573bcm targeted for 2013, representing 45% growth. Production of an estimated 410bcm in 2008 should reach 617bcm in 2013 (+50.5%), which implies net exports rising to 45bcm by the end of the period. In 2008, Oman consumed an estimated 3.19% of the region’s gas, with its market share forecast at 2.88% by 2013. It contributed an estimated 6.58% to 2008 regional gas production, and by 2013 will account for 5.67% of supply.

In terms of the OPEC basket of crudes, the average price in Q408 was an estimated US$52.53 per barrel (bbl), down sharply from the US$113.49 recorded during the previous three months. The full year 2008 average is put by BMI at US$94.08/bbl, representing a 36% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase. North Sea Brent, WTI and Russian Urals are believed to have averaged US$97.06, US$99.33 and US$94.56/bbl respectively during 2008. For 2009, we are now assuming an average OPEC basket price of US$52/bbl (- 45% y-o-y), with Q109 expected to deliver US$40.00. The new full year forecast implies Brent crude at US$55.65, WTI averaging US$56.63/bbl and Urals at US$52.48 for 2009. For 2010, we expect to see a recovery to US$58.00/bbl for the OPEC price, gaining further ground to US$65 in 2011 and US$70/bbl in 2012. We are now using a long-term price assumption of US$70 for 2013-2018, down from our previous assumption of US$90/bbl.

In 2009, we see monthly average global wholesale gasoline prices ranging from US$38.90 in January to a high of US$64.90 reached in August and in December, providing a full year average of US$56.20 – just over 55% of the 2008 outturn. The 2009 BMI gasoil forecast is for an average price of US$67/bbl, assuming a monthly low of US$46.40 in January and a high of US$77.30/bbl in December. The full-year outturn represents a 45% downturn from the 2008 level. For 2009, the monthly average jet fuel price is forecast to range from US$47.90 in January to US$79.80/bbl in August, proving an annual level of US$69.20/bbl.

Oman’s real GDP growth is forecast by BMI at 3.2% for 2009, following an estimated 6.4% in 2008. We are assuming 4% growth in 2010, 3.9% in 2011, followed by 3.8% in 2012 and 4.6% in 2013. We expect oil demand to rise from an estimated 63,000b/d in 2008 to 78,000b/d in 2013. Partly state-owned Petroleum Development Oman (PDO) accounts for more than 90% of the oil and gas produced in the country, but relies on international oil companies (IOCs) to maintain volumes. Our estimates assume 720,000b/d of 2009 oil and liquids production, followed by a short-lived rally to the 730,000b/d level in 2011, before volumes again sink to 710,000b/d by the end of the forecast period. Gas production should reach 35bcm by 2013, up from an estimated 27bcm in 2008. Consumption is expected to rise from 12.6bcm to 16.5bcm by the end of the forecast period, allowing exports of 18.5bcm.

Between 2007 and 2018, we are forecasting a decrease in Omani oil production of 18.9%, with crude volumes peaking at 730,000b/d in 2011, before falling steadily to 582,000b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Oil consumption between 2007 and 2018 is set to increase by 60.9%, with growth slowing to an assumed 5% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 99,000b/d by 2018. Gas production is expected to peak at 35bcm by 2013-2015, before slipping to 30bcm by the end of the period. With 2007-2018 demand growth of 59.2%, this provides an export capability peaking at 18.5bcm in 2013, before falling to just under 11bcm by 2018. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report, which provides global, regional and country-specific projections.

Oman now occupies sixth place behind Iran and Turkey in BMI’s updated Upstream Business Environment rating. The country’s score benefits from a sound country risk profile, good licensing terms and a healthier privatisation trend than that seen elsewhere in the region. The country is in the upper half of the league table in BMI’s updated Downstream Business Environment rating, with a few high scores but near-term progress up the rankings unlikely. It is ranked equal third with the UAE, in front of Iran in spite of low scores for refining capacity, oil demand, retail site intensity and the gas demand growth outlook. Healthy country risk factors, oil demand growth potential and moves towards deregulation and privatisation help bolster the overall score, but Israel will probably remain out of reach.

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Table of Contents

Chapter - Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Oman Political SWOT Industry SWOT
Oman Economic SWOT
Oman Business Environment SWOT
Chapter - Oman Energy Market Overview
Global Oil Market Outlook
Storing Up Trouble
Revised Forecasts
Chapter - Global Oil Market Review
One-Way Traffic
Table: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d)
12-Month Demand Outlook
Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d)
12-Month Supply Outlook
Longer-Term Supply And Demand
Oil Price Assumptions
Table: Crude Price Assumptions 2008/2009
Table: Oil Price Forecasts
Chapter - Global Oil Products Price Outlook
Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions 2009 (US$/bbl)
Table: Oil Product Price Forecasts (US$/bbl)
Chapter - Global Oil Products Market Review
Regional Market Overview
Oil Supply And Demand
Table: Middle East Oil Consumption (000b/d)
Table: Middle East Oil Production (000b/d)
Oil: Downstream
Table: Middle East Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d)
Gas Supply And Demand
Table: Middle East Gas Consumption (bcm)
Table: Middle East Gas Production (bcm)
Liquefied Natural Gas
Table: Middle East LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm)
Chapter - Business Environment Ranking
Middle East Region
Composite Scores
Regional Upstream Business Environment Rating
Table: Regional Downstream Business Environment Rating
Upstream Scores
Downstream Scores
Oman Upstream Rating – Overview
Oman Upstream Rating – Potential Returns
Oman Upstream Rating – Risks To Potential Returns
Oman Downstream Rating – Overview
Oman Downstream Rating – Potential Returns
Oman Downstream Rating – Risks To Potential Returns
Chapter - Business Environment
Legal Framework
Infrastructure
Labour Force
Foreign Investment Policy
Tax Regime
Chapter - Industry Forecast Scenario
Oil and Gas Reserves
Oil Supply and Demand
Gas Supply and Demand
LNG
Refining and Oil Products Trade
Revenues/Import Costs
Table: Oman Oil & Gas – Historical Data & Forecasts
Other Energy
Table: Oman Other Energy – Historical data & Forecasts
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
Long-Term Oil & Gas Outlook
Chapter - Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Oman – Economic Activity
Chapter - Competitive Landscape
Executive Summary
Table: Key Companies In Oman Energy Sector
Overview/State Role
Table: Key Upstream Players
Table: Key Downstream Players
Chapter - Company Monitor
Petroleum Development Oman (PDO)
Shell Oman Marketing Company
Oman Oil Company (OOC)
Total – Summary
CNPC/Sinopec – Summary
Occidental – Summary
BP – Summary
MOL – Summary
RAK Petroleum – Summary
EnCana/Denerco – Summary
PTTEP – Summary
Indago Petroleum – Summary
Others – Summary
Chapter - Glossary of Terms
Oil & Gas Ratings: Revised Methodology
Introduction
Ratings Overview
Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings: Structure
Indicators
Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings: Methodology
Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings: Methodology
Chapter - Oil & Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts
Global Oil Demand
Table: Global Oil Demand (000b/d)
Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d)
Global Oil Supply
Global Gas Demand
Table: Global Gas Demand (bcm)
Global Gas Supply
Table: Global Gas Production (bcm)
Regional Oil Demand
Table: Middle East Oil Consumption (000b/d)
Regional Oil Supply
Table: Middle East Oil Production (000b/d)
Regional Refining Capacity
Table: Middle East Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d)
Regional Gas Demand
Table: Middle East Gas Consumption (bcm)
Regional Gas Supply
Table: Middle East Gas Production (bcm)
Oman Country Overview
Methodology & Risks To Forecasts
Chapter - BMI Forecast Modelling
How we generate our industry forecasts
Energy Industry
Cross checks
Sources

For full details, please email keithw@cmsinfo.com

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