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Table of Contents

Management Report
Published: April 2009
Pages: 89
Tables: For full details, please email keithw@cmsinfo.com
From: GBP 585.00   Buy Now!
Research from: Business Monitor International
Sector: Oil & Gas

The Norway Oil & Gas Report
Independent 10-year oil and gas industry forecasts for Norway.
Original oil and gas market research and oil and gas sector trend analysis for Norway’s oil and gas industry.
Competitive intelligence, Norwegian oil and gas company rankings and SWOT analyses on international and domestic oil and gas companies in Norway.
The Norway Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source in 2008, and features latest available data and forecasts for Norway to end- covering headline indicators for oil & gas, LNG, coal and power; company rankings and competitive landscapes covering oil & gas exploration and production in Norway, refining, oil & gas distribution and fuels retailing; and analysis of latest industry developments, trends and regulatory issues within Norway.

Business Monitor International's Norway Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Norwegian oil and gas industry.


Key Benefits of Report Benchmark BMI’s Independent 10-Year Oil & Gas Industry Forecast for Norway to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Norwegian oil and gas market.
Target Business Opportunities & Risks in the Norwegian Oil & Gas Sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Norway.
Exploit The Latest Competitive Norwegian Oil & Gas Intelligence & Company SWOTS on your competitors and peers through company rankings by sales, market share and ownership structure - includes multi national and national companies in Norway.
CoverageExecutive Summary
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand, refining, coal and power, and primary energy, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview
Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports; overview of industry landscape and key players; assessment of business operating environment and latest regulatory developments.

Business Environment Rankings
A unique comparative study undertaken by BMI on the relative business climates across all regional markets covered. A rankings table highlights the merits of each market from an investor angle, giving scores for indicators such as Oil & Gas Supply and Demand Growth, Oil & Gas Reserves, Licensing Framework and the local Competitive Environment, as well as Economic and Political Risk.

Oil Market Outlook
BMI analyses and forecasts oil prices out to , monitoring supply and demand in terms of oil production and consumption across the region.

BMI 10-Year Industry Forecast
Historic data series and 10-year forecasts to end- for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (000 b/d)
Oil exports (000 b/d), value of oil exports (US$mn - BMI base case) - Oil price (US$/bbl, OPEC basket)
Value of oil exports at constant US$30/bbl and constant US$60/bbl (US$mn)
Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)
Gas exports/(imports) (bcm)
Value of gas exports/(imports) (US$mn); value of gas exports/(imports) at constant US$30/bbl and US$60/bbl (US$mn)
Value of petroleum exports (US$mn); value of petroleum exports at constant US$30/bbl and US$60/bbl (US$mn)
BMI 10-Year Macroeconomic Forecast
BMI forecasts for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape & Rankings
Comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, oil production (‘000 b/d) and % market share, downstream capacity (‘000 b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles & SWOTS
Company profiles, including SWOT analyses, senior executives and full contact details, business activity, products and services, foreign direct investments and projects.

Executive Summary

The latest Norway Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for just 1.60% of developed European regional oil demand by 2013, while contributing 49.33% to supply. In Developed Europe, overall oil consumption reached 13.88mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2007. It is set to rise to around 14.12mn b/d by 2013. In terms of natural gas, the Developed Europe region in 2007 consumed 434bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 492bcm targeted for 2013, representing 13.4% growth. Production of 264bcm in 2007 should rise to 279bcm in 2013, which implies net imports rising from the 2007 level of 170bcm to some 213bcm by the end of the period. Norway’s share of gas consumption in 2007 was 0.99%, while it contributed 33.98% to production. By 2013, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 1.00%, with a 42.96% contribution to regional supply.

In Q308, we estimate that the OPEC basket price averaged US$113.60 per barrel (bbl) – down around 3.4% from the Q208 level. The OPEC basket price averaged US$112.41/bbl in August and US$97.16/bbl in September. In October, we are assuming an average of around US$113.30/bbl. The estimated Q308 average prices for the main marker blends are now US$115.67/bbl for Brent, US$117.22/bbl for WTI and US$113.43/bbl for Russian Urals (Mediterranean delivery). Our projections for 2008 as a whole are unchanged from the last oil market report. We are still assuming an OPEC basket price average of US$110/bbl for 2008. Based on recent price differentials, this implies Brent at US$113.33/bbl, WTI averaging US$114.58/bbl, and Urals at US$110.36/bbl. Our central view is that the OPEC basket price will fall from US$110/bbl in 2008 to US$96/bbl in 2009, before settling around US$90/bbl in 2010 onwards.

In terms of our refined products forecasts, the BMI composite (Rotterdam, Singapore and New York) global indicator price for unleaded gasoline is expected to average approximately US$117.50/bbl during 2008. Our jet forecast for 2008 is just under US$141/bbl, up from US$89/bbl in 2007. The 60% annual increase represents the second biggest for the key refined products. With gasoil, BMI is assuming a similar gain in 2008, to an average US$137/bbl. Naphtha is expected to exhibit more modest growth, rising from US$75/bbl to US$106/bbl (+41%). During 2009, we are expecting products prices to follow the underlying crude trend lower, but to prove more resilient than the feedstock – implying a recovery in refining margins. Gasoline in 2009 is estimated at US$103/bbl, with jet falling to US$127/bbl. Gasoil is expected to average US$122/bbl, with naphtha slipping to US$91/bbl.

Norwegian real GDP growth is now estimated by BMI at 2.9% for 2008, down from 3.7% in 2007. We are assuming average annual growth of 2.3% between 2008 and 2012. Recent (October 2008) Norwegian oil and liquids production has averaged 2.42mn b/d. We expect the country’s 2008 oil and liquids production to be approximately 2.42mn b/d. By 2013, liquids volumes look set to have slipped to 2.10mn b/d. Oil demand could rise to just 226,000b/d by 2013, implying net exports slipping from 2.34mn b/d in 2007 to 1.87mn b/d by the end of the period. The 2007 gas production of 89.7bcm should continue to rise towards at least 120bcm in 2012/13. Domestic gas consumption rising from 4.3bcm to 4.9bcm over the period 2007-2013 suggests that net exports will rise to 115.1bcm by the end of the forecast period.

Between 2007 and 2018, we are forecasting a decrease in Norwegian oil production of 29.2%, with output slipping steadily from 2.56mn b/d in 2007 to 1.81mn b/d at the end of the 10-year forecast period. Given oil consumption forecast to increase by just 1.36%, exports slide from 2.34mn b/d to 1.59mn b/d during the forecast period. Gas production should rise from the 2007 level of 89.7bcm to a peak of 120.0bcm in 2012-2014, before falling to 100.0bcm by 2018. Most exports will continue to be in the form of pipeline gas, with some liquefied natural gas (LNG). Details of the new BMI 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report, which provides global, regional and country-specific projections.

BMI’s long-term political risk rating for Norway is 99.0, well above the Developed Markets average of 85.6; and the highest among our universe of developed countries. Our long-term economic rating is 77.2, which compares with a Developed Markets average of 69.0, making Norway the highest-scoring country in developed Europe. Our business environment rating is 72.9, behind only the UK in developed Europe. The Developed Markets average is 68.3. There is a partly privatised energy sector, with government majority ownership of key company StatoilHydro, formed in 2007 from Statoil and the oil and gas interests of Norsk Hydro. Norway has a major, but mature and highly competitive upstream oil and gas segment, featuring most key national and international companies. The downstream oil segment is small, open to competition and de-regulated.

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Table of Contents

Chapter - Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Norway Political SWOT
Norway Economic SWOT
Chapter - Norway Energy Market Overview
Global Oil Market Overview
Table: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d)
Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d)
Chapter - Oil Price Outlook
Table: Crude Price Assumptions 2007-2008
Revised Forecasts
Table: Oil Price Forecasts
Chapter - Oil Products Price Outlook
Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions 2008-2009 (US$/bbl)
Table: Oil Product Price Forecasts (US$/bbl)
Chapter - Regional Energy Market Overview
Oil Supply And Demand
Table: Developed Markets Oil Consumption (000b/d)
Table: Developed Markets Oil Production (000b/d)
Oil: Downstream
Table: Developed Markets Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d)
Gas Supply And Demand
Table: Developed Markets Gas Consumption (bcm)
Table: Developed Markets Gas Production (bcm)
Liquefied Natural Gas
Table: Developed Markets LNG Imports/(Exports) (bcm)
Chapter - Industry Forecast Scenario
Oil and Gas Reserves
Oil Supply and Demand
Gas Supply and Demand
LNG
Refining and Oil Products Trade
Revenues/Import Costs
Table: Norway Oil & Gas – Historical Data & Forecasts
Other Energy
Table: Norway Other Energy – Historical data & Forecasts
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
Long-Term Oil & Gas Outlook
Chapter - Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Norway - Macroeconomic Forecasts
Chapter - Competitive Landscape
Executive Summary
Table: Key Players – Norway Oil And Gas Sector
Overview/State Role
Table: Key Upstream Players
Table: Key Downstream Players
Chapter - Company Monitor
StatoilHydro
ExxonMobil
Det Norske Oljeselskap – Summary
Lundin Petroleum – Summary
Aker Exploration – Summary
DONG Energy – Summary
Eni – Summary
Marathon Oil – Summary
Centrica – Summary
BG Group – Summary
Wintershall Norge AS – Summary
OMV – Summary
Faroe Petroleum – Summary
Chapter - Glossary of Terms
Oil & Gas Ratings: Revised Methodology
Introduction
Ratings Overview
Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings: Structure
Indicators
Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings: Methodology
Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings: Methodology
Chapter - Oil & Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts
Global Oil Demand
Global Oil Demand (000b/d)
Global Oil Production (000b/d)
Global Oil Supply
Global Gas Demand
Global Gas Demand (bcm)
Global Gas Supply
Global Gas Production (bcm)
Regional Oil Demand
Developed Europe Oil Consumption (000b/d)
Regional Oil Supply
Developed Europe Oil Consumption (000b/d)
Regional Oil Supply
Developed Europe Oil Production (000b/d)
Regional Refining Capacity
Developed Europe Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d)
Regional Gas Demand
Developed Europe Gas Consumption (bcm)
Regional Gas Supply
Developed Europe Gas Production (bcm)
Norway Country Overview
Norway Oil & Gas – Long-Term Forecasts
Norway Other Energy – Long-Term Forecasts
Methodology & Risks To Forecasts
Chapter - BMI Forecast Modelling
How we generate our industry forecasts
Energy Industry
Cross checks
Sources

For full details, please email keithw@cmsinfo.com

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