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India Oil & Gas Quarterly Report
Management Report
Published: April 2009
Pages: 123
Tables: For full details, please email keithw@cmsinfo.com
From: GBP 585.00 Buy Now!
Research from: Business Monitor International
Sector: Oil & Gas
The India Oil & Gas Report
Independent 10-year oil and gas industry forecasts for India.
Original oil and gas market research and oil and gas sector trend analysis for India’s oil and gas industry.
Competitive intelligence, Indian oil and gas company rankings and SWOT analyses on international and domestic oil and gas companies in India.
The India Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source in 2008, and features latest available data and forecasts for India to end-2017 covering headline indicators for oil & gas, LNG, coal and power; company rankings and competitive landscapes covering oil & gas exploration and production in India, refining, oil & gas distribution and fuels retailing; and analysis of latest industry developments, trends and regulatory issues within India.
Business Monitor International's India Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Indian oil and gas industry.
Key Benefits of Report Benchmark BMI’s Independent 10-Year Oil & Gas Industry Forecast for India to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Indian oil and gas market.
Target Business Opportunities & Risks in the Indian Oil & Gas Sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in India.
Exploit The Latest Competitive Indian Oil & Gas Intelligence & Company SWOTS on your competitors and peers through company rankings by sales, market share and ownership structure - includes multi national and national companies in India.
CoverageExecutive Summary
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand, refining, coal and power, and primary energy, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
Regional Overview
Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports; overview of industry landscape and key players; assessment of business operating environment and latest regulatory developments.
Business Environment Rankings
A unique comparative study undertaken by BMI on the relative business climates across all regional markets covered. A rankings table highlights the merits of each market from an investor angle, giving scores for indicators such as Oil & Gas Supply and Demand Growth, Oil & Gas Reserves, Licensing Framework and the local Competitive Environment, as well as Economic and Political Risk.
Oil Market Outlook
BMI analyses and forecasts oil prices out to 2017, monitoring supply and demand in terms of oil production and consumption across the region.
BMI 10-Year Industry Forecast
Historic data series and 10-year forecasts to end-2017 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (000 b/d)
Oil exports (000 b/d), value of oil exports (US$mn - BMI base case) - Oil price (US$/bbl, OPEC basket)
Value of oil exports at constant US$30/bbl and constant US$60/bbl (US$mn)
Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)
Gas exports/(imports) (bcm)
Value of gas exports/(imports) (US$mn); value of gas exports/(imports) at constant US$30/bbl and US$60/bbl (US$mn)
Value of petroleum exports (US$mn); value of petroleum exports at constant US$30/bbl and US$60/bbl (US$mn)
BMI 10-Year Macroeconomic Forecast
BMI forecasts for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Competitive Landscape & Rankings
Comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, oil production (‘000 b/d) and % market share, downstream capacity (‘000 b/d) and % market share.
Company Profiles & SWOTS
Company profiles, including SWOT analyses, senior executives and full contact details, business activity, products and services, foreign direct investments and projects. Executive Summary
The latest India Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 11.23% of Asia Pacific regional oil demand by 2013, while providing 10.85% of supply. Asia Pacific regional oil use of 21.40mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 reached 25.68mn b/d in 2007. It should average 26.32mn b/d in 2008, and then rise to around 29.65mn b/d by 2013. In terms of natural gas, in 2007 the region consumed 421bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 595bcm targeted for 2013. Production of 336bcm in 2007 should reach 483bcm in 2013, but implies net imports rising from 85bcm per annum in 2007 to 111bcm in 2012. This is in spite of many Asian gas producers being major exporters. India’s share of gas consumption in 2007 was 9.55%, while its share of production was 8.98%. By 2013, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 10.22%, with the country accounting for 10.34% of supply.
In Q308, we estimate that the OPEC basket price averaged US$113.60 per barrel (bbl) – down around 3.4% from the Q208 level. The OPEC basket price averaged US$112.41/bbl in August and US$97.16/bbl in September. In October, we are assuming an average of around US$113.30/bbl. The estimated Q308 average prices for the main marker blends are now US$115.67/bbl for Brent, US$117.22/bbl for WTI and US$113.43/bbl for Russian Urals (Mediterranean delivery). Our projections for 2008 as a whole are unchanged from the last oil market report. We are still assuming an OPEC basket price average of US$110/bbl for 2008. Based on recent price differentials, this implies Brent at US$113.33, WTI averaging US$114.58/bbl, and Urals at US$110.36/bbl. Our central view is that the OPEC basket price will fall from US$110/bbl in 2008 to US$96 in 2009, before settling around US$90/bbl in 2010 onwards.
In terms of our refined products forecasts, the BMI composite (Rotterdam, Singapore and New York) global indicator price for unleaded gasoline is expected to average approximately US$117.50/bbl during 2008. Our jet forecast for 2008 is just under US$141/bbl, up from US$89/bbl in 2007. The 60% annual increase represents the second biggest for the key refined products. With gasoil, BMI is assuming a similar gain in 2008, to an average US$137/bbl. Naphtha is expected to exhibit more modest growth, rising from US$75/bbl to US$106/bbl (+41%). During 2009, we are expecting products prices to follow the underlying crude trend lower, but to prove more resilient than the feedstock – implying a recovery in refining margins. Gasoline in 2009 is estimated at US$103/bbl, with jet falling to US$127/bbl. Gasoil is expected to average US$122/bbl, with naphtha slipping to US$91/bbl.
Indian real GDP growth is forecast by BMI at 9.0% for 2008, down from 9.4% in 2007. We are assuming 7.9% growth in 2009, 7.8% in 2010, 7.9% in 2011, followed by 7.5% in 2012 and 7.3% in 2013. State oil firm Oil & Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) is charged with maximising domestic oil production, which in 2007 averaged 801,000b/d. Thanks to its efforts and those of UK-based Cairn Energy, we see production peaking at around 950,000b/d by 2011. Oil consumption is forecast to increase by 3-4% per annum to 2012, implying demand of 3.38mn b/d by 2013. The import requirement would therefore be approximately 2.45mn b/d by the end of the forecast period. Gas consumption is set to rise from 40bcm in 2007 to 61bcm, with domestic supply up from 30bcm in 2007 to 50bcm by 2013.
Between 2007 and 2018, we are forecasting an increase in Indian oil production of just 7.4%, with crude volumes peaking in 2011 at 950,000b/d, then falling steadily to 860,000b/d in 2018. Oil consumption between 2007 and 2018 is set to increase by 33.8%, with growth slowing to an assumed 2.0% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 3.68mn b/d by 2018. Gas production is expected to rise from around 30bcm in 2007 to a possible 60bcm by 2018 (+100%). With demand growth of 93%, this provides an import requirement rising from 10bcm to 18bcm, largely in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG). Details of the new BMI 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report, which provides global, regional and country-specific projections.
India again ranks third in BMI’s updated Upstream Business Environment rating, with a strong resource position being offset somewhat by extensive state involvement, a limited competitive landscape and only a moderate risk environment. The country sits well ahead of the Philippines and Pakistan, and just three points behind Vietnam. The country is still second behind China in the league table in BMI’s updated Downstream Business Environment rating, reflecting its status as a high-growth energy market with strongly positive population and demand trends, plus a low level of retail site intensity. It is just ahead of Singapore, with scope to pull away from the more mature Asian energy economy.
Independent 10-year oil and gas industry forecasts for India.
Original oil and gas market research and oil and gas sector trend analysis for India’s oil and gas industry.
Competitive intelligence, Indian oil and gas company rankings and SWOT analyses on international and domestic oil and gas companies in India.
The India Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source in 2008, and features latest available data and forecasts for India to end-2017 covering headline indicators for oil & gas, LNG, coal and power; company rankings and competitive landscapes covering oil & gas exploration and production in India, refining, oil & gas distribution and fuels retailing; and analysis of latest industry developments, trends and regulatory issues within India.
Business Monitor International's India Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Indian oil and gas industry.
Key Benefits of Report Benchmark BMI’s Independent 10-Year Oil & Gas Industry Forecast for India to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Indian oil and gas market.
Target Business Opportunities & Risks in the Indian Oil & Gas Sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in India.
Exploit The Latest Competitive Indian Oil & Gas Intelligence & Company SWOTS on your competitors and peers through company rankings by sales, market share and ownership structure - includes multi national and national companies in India.
CoverageExecutive Summary
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand, refining, coal and power, and primary energy, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
Regional Overview
Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports; overview of industry landscape and key players; assessment of business operating environment and latest regulatory developments.
Business Environment Rankings
A unique comparative study undertaken by BMI on the relative business climates across all regional markets covered. A rankings table highlights the merits of each market from an investor angle, giving scores for indicators such as Oil & Gas Supply and Demand Growth, Oil & Gas Reserves, Licensing Framework and the local Competitive Environment, as well as Economic and Political Risk.
Oil Market Outlook
BMI analyses and forecasts oil prices out to 2017, monitoring supply and demand in terms of oil production and consumption across the region.
BMI 10-Year Industry Forecast
Historic data series and 10-year forecasts to end-2017 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (000 b/d)
Oil exports (000 b/d), value of oil exports (US$mn - BMI base case) - Oil price (US$/bbl, OPEC basket)
Value of oil exports at constant US$30/bbl and constant US$60/bbl (US$mn)
Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)
Gas exports/(imports) (bcm)
Value of gas exports/(imports) (US$mn); value of gas exports/(imports) at constant US$30/bbl and US$60/bbl (US$mn)
Value of petroleum exports (US$mn); value of petroleum exports at constant US$30/bbl and US$60/bbl (US$mn)
BMI 10-Year Macroeconomic Forecast
BMI forecasts for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Competitive Landscape & Rankings
Comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, oil production (‘000 b/d) and % market share, downstream capacity (‘000 b/d) and % market share.
Company Profiles & SWOTS
Company profiles, including SWOT analyses, senior executives and full contact details, business activity, products and services, foreign direct investments and projects. Executive Summary
The latest India Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 11.23% of Asia Pacific regional oil demand by 2013, while providing 10.85% of supply. Asia Pacific regional oil use of 21.40mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 reached 25.68mn b/d in 2007. It should average 26.32mn b/d in 2008, and then rise to around 29.65mn b/d by 2013. In terms of natural gas, in 2007 the region consumed 421bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 595bcm targeted for 2013. Production of 336bcm in 2007 should reach 483bcm in 2013, but implies net imports rising from 85bcm per annum in 2007 to 111bcm in 2012. This is in spite of many Asian gas producers being major exporters. India’s share of gas consumption in 2007 was 9.55%, while its share of production was 8.98%. By 2013, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 10.22%, with the country accounting for 10.34% of supply.
In Q308, we estimate that the OPEC basket price averaged US$113.60 per barrel (bbl) – down around 3.4% from the Q208 level. The OPEC basket price averaged US$112.41/bbl in August and US$97.16/bbl in September. In October, we are assuming an average of around US$113.30/bbl. The estimated Q308 average prices for the main marker blends are now US$115.67/bbl for Brent, US$117.22/bbl for WTI and US$113.43/bbl for Russian Urals (Mediterranean delivery). Our projections for 2008 as a whole are unchanged from the last oil market report. We are still assuming an OPEC basket price average of US$110/bbl for 2008. Based on recent price differentials, this implies Brent at US$113.33, WTI averaging US$114.58/bbl, and Urals at US$110.36/bbl. Our central view is that the OPEC basket price will fall from US$110/bbl in 2008 to US$96 in 2009, before settling around US$90/bbl in 2010 onwards.
In terms of our refined products forecasts, the BMI composite (Rotterdam, Singapore and New York) global indicator price for unleaded gasoline is expected to average approximately US$117.50/bbl during 2008. Our jet forecast for 2008 is just under US$141/bbl, up from US$89/bbl in 2007. The 60% annual increase represents the second biggest for the key refined products. With gasoil, BMI is assuming a similar gain in 2008, to an average US$137/bbl. Naphtha is expected to exhibit more modest growth, rising from US$75/bbl to US$106/bbl (+41%). During 2009, we are expecting products prices to follow the underlying crude trend lower, but to prove more resilient than the feedstock – implying a recovery in refining margins. Gasoline in 2009 is estimated at US$103/bbl, with jet falling to US$127/bbl. Gasoil is expected to average US$122/bbl, with naphtha slipping to US$91/bbl.
Indian real GDP growth is forecast by BMI at 9.0% for 2008, down from 9.4% in 2007. We are assuming 7.9% growth in 2009, 7.8% in 2010, 7.9% in 2011, followed by 7.5% in 2012 and 7.3% in 2013. State oil firm Oil & Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) is charged with maximising domestic oil production, which in 2007 averaged 801,000b/d. Thanks to its efforts and those of UK-based Cairn Energy, we see production peaking at around 950,000b/d by 2011. Oil consumption is forecast to increase by 3-4% per annum to 2012, implying demand of 3.38mn b/d by 2013. The import requirement would therefore be approximately 2.45mn b/d by the end of the forecast period. Gas consumption is set to rise from 40bcm in 2007 to 61bcm, with domestic supply up from 30bcm in 2007 to 50bcm by 2013.
Between 2007 and 2018, we are forecasting an increase in Indian oil production of just 7.4%, with crude volumes peaking in 2011 at 950,000b/d, then falling steadily to 860,000b/d in 2018. Oil consumption between 2007 and 2018 is set to increase by 33.8%, with growth slowing to an assumed 2.0% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 3.68mn b/d by 2018. Gas production is expected to rise from around 30bcm in 2007 to a possible 60bcm by 2018 (+100%). With demand growth of 93%, this provides an import requirement rising from 10bcm to 18bcm, largely in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG). Details of the new BMI 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report, which provides global, regional and country-specific projections.
India again ranks third in BMI’s updated Upstream Business Environment rating, with a strong resource position being offset somewhat by extensive state involvement, a limited competitive landscape and only a moderate risk environment. The country sits well ahead of the Philippines and Pakistan, and just three points behind Vietnam. The country is still second behind China in the league table in BMI’s updated Downstream Business Environment rating, reflecting its status as a high-growth energy market with strongly positive population and demand trends, plus a low level of retail site intensity. It is just ahead of Singapore, with scope to pull away from the more mature Asian energy economy.