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Bulgaria Oil & Gas Quarterly Report
Management Report
Published: April 2009
Pages: 105
Tables: For full details, please email keithw@cmsinfo.com
From: GBP 585.00 Buy Now!
Research from: Business Monitor International
Sector: Oil & Gas
The Bulgaria Oil & Gas Report
Independent 10-year oil and gas industry forecasts for Bulgaria.
Original oil and gas market research and oil and gas sector trend analysis for Bulgaria’s oil and gas industry.
Competitive intelligence, Bulgarian oil and gas company rankings and SWOT analyses on international and domestic oil and gas companies in Bulgaria.
The Bulgaria Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source in 2008, and features latest available data and forecasts for Bulgaria to end- covering headline indicators for oil & gas, LNG, coal and power; company rankings and competitive landscapes covering oil & gas exploration and production in Bulgaria, refining, oil & gas distribution and fuels retailing; and analysis of latest industry developments, trends and regulatory issues within Bulgaria.
Business Monitor International's Bulgaria Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Bulgarian oil and gas industry.
Key Benefits of Report Benchmark BMI’s Independent 10-Year Oil & Gas Industry Forecast for Bulgaria to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Bulgarian oil and gas market.
Target Business Opportunities & Risks in the Bulgarian Oil & Gas Sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Bulgaria.
Exploit The Latest Competitive Bulgarian Oil & Gas Intelligence & Company SWOTS on your competitors and peers through company rankings by sales, market share and ownership structure - includes multi national and national companies in Bulgaria.
CoverageExecutive Summary
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand, refining, coal and power, and primary energy, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
Regional Overview
Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports; overview of industry landscape and key players; assessment of business operating environment and latest regulatory developments.
Business Environment Rankings
A unique comparative study undertaken by BMI on the relative business climates across all regional markets covered. A rankings table highlights the merits of each market from an investor angle, giving scores for indicators such as Oil & Gas Supply and Demand Growth, Oil & Gas Reserves, Licensing Framework and the local Competitive Environment, as well as Economic and Political Risk.
Oil Market Outlook
BMI analyses and forecasts oil prices out to , monitoring supply and demand in terms of oil production and consumption across the region.
BMI 10-Year Industry Forecast
Historic data series and 10-year forecasts to end- for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (000 b/d)
Oil exports (000 b/d), value of oil exports (US$mn - BMI base case) - Oil price (US$/bbl, OPEC basket)
Value of oil exports at constant US$30/bbl and constant US$60/bbl (US$mn)
Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)
Gas exports/(imports) (bcm)
Value of gas exports/(imports) (US$mn); value of gas exports/(imports) at constant US$30/bbl and US$60/bbl (US$mn)
Value of petroleum exports (US$mn); value of petroleum exports at constant US$30/bbl and US$60/bbl (US$mn)
BMI 10-Year Macroeconomic Forecast
BMI forecasts for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Competitive Landscape & Rankings
Comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, oil production (‘000 b/d) and % market share, downstream capacity (‘000 b/d) and % market share.
Company Profiles & SWOTS
Company profiles, including SWOT analyses, senior executives and full contact details, business activity, products and services, foreign direct investments and projects. Executive Summary
The latest Bulgaria Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 2.21% of Central and Eastern European (CEE) regional oil demand by 2013, while making no meaningful contribution to supply. CEE regional oil use of 4.65mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 rose to 5.27mn b/d in 2007. It should average 5.36mn b/d in 2008 and then rise to around 5.99mn b/d by 2013. Regional production of 12.92mn b/d in 2007 is forecast to reach 14.96mn b/d by 2013. In terms of natural gas, the region in 2007 consumed 619bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 753bcm targeted for 2013, representing 21.61% growth. Production of 756bcm in 2007 should reach 913bcm in 2013, which implies net exports rising from 137bcm in 2007 to 161bcm by the end of the period. Bulgaria’s share of consumption in 2007 was 0.50%, while it has no significant share of production. By 2013, its share of demand is forecast to be 0.70%.
In Q308, we estimate that the OPEC basket price averaged US$113.60 per barrel (bbl) – down around 3.4% from the Q208 level. The OPEC basket price averaged US$112.41/bbl in August and US$97.16/bbl in September. In October, we are assuming an average of around US$113.30/bbl. The estimated Q308 average prices for the main marker blends are now US$115.67/bbl for Brent, US$117.22/bbl for WTI and US$113.43/bbl for Russian Urals (Mediterranean delivery). Our projections for 2008 as a whole are unchanged from the last oil market report. We are still assuming an OPEC basket price average of US$110/bbl for 2008. Based on recent price differentials, this implies Brent at US$113.33/bbl, WTI averaging US$114.58/bbl, and Urals at US$110.36/bbl. Our central view is that the OPEC basket price will fall from US$110/bbl in 2008 to US$96/bbl in 2009, before settling around US$90/bbl in 2010 onwards.
In terms of our refined products forecasts, the BMI composite (Rotterdam, Singapore and New York) global indicator price for unleaded gasoline is expected to average approximately US$117.50/bbl during 2008. Our jet forecast for 2008 is just under US$141/bbl, up from US$89 in 2007. The 60% annual increase represents the second biggest for the key refined products. With gasoil, BMI is assuming a similar gain in 2008, to an average US$137/bbl. Naphtha is expected to exhibit more modest growth, rising from US$75 to US$106/bbl (+41%). During 2009, we are expecting products prices to follow the underlying crude trend lower, but to prove more resilient than the feedstock – implying a recovery in refining margins. Gasoline in 2009 is estimated at US$103/bbl, with jet falling to US$127/bbl. Gasoil is expected to average US$122/bbl, with naphtha slipping to US$91/bbl.
Bulgarian real GDP growth is forecast by BMI at 5.6% for 2008, following 6.2% in 2007. We are assuming 5.2% growth in 2009, 5.7% in 2010, followed by 5.6% in 2011, 5.0% in 2012 and 4.4% in 2013. Oil demand is rising at 2.0% per annum, which suggests that consumption could reach 132,000b/d by 2013. Imports can be expected to grow in line, as exploration efforts in the largely privatized hydrocarbons sector by small international oil companies (IOCs) do not appear likely to deliver increased domestic crude volumes. Gas consumption is rising well ahead of domestic supply. While gas output could reach 1.5bcm by the end of 2013, demand is heading for 5.30bcm, requiring imports of 3.80bcm
Between 2007 and 2018, we are forecasting an increase in Bulgarian oil consumption of 21.9%, with import volumes rising steadily from 119,000b/d to 145,000b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Gas production should rise from the 2007 level of 0.9bcm to a peak of 1.5bcm in 2013/14, before easing to 1.2bcm by 2018. Import dependency therefore increases from 2.2bcm to 5.6bcm during the period. Details of the new BMI 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report, which provides global, regional and country-specific projections.
Bulgaria shares ninth place with the Czech Republic in BMI’s updated Upstream Business Environment rating. Its minimal oil and gas reserves, poor production outlook, and limited competitive landscape work against the country, but are offset somewhat by reasonable country risk factors. Long-term scope exists for Bulgaria to challenge Romania above it. The country is well in the lower half of the league table in BMI’s Downstream Business Environment rating, with few particularly high scores and no reason to expect near-term progress further up the rankings. Refining capacity is among the region’s lowest, while gas consumption is particularly modest. The relatively high level of retail site intensity represents a weak suit, although gas demand growth prospects are the best in the CEE region. Croatia shares 11th place with Bulgaria, and has no greater re-rating potential over the longer term.
Independent 10-year oil and gas industry forecasts for Bulgaria.
Original oil and gas market research and oil and gas sector trend analysis for Bulgaria’s oil and gas industry.
Competitive intelligence, Bulgarian oil and gas company rankings and SWOT analyses on international and domestic oil and gas companies in Bulgaria.
The Bulgaria Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source in 2008, and features latest available data and forecasts for Bulgaria to end- covering headline indicators for oil & gas, LNG, coal and power; company rankings and competitive landscapes covering oil & gas exploration and production in Bulgaria, refining, oil & gas distribution and fuels retailing; and analysis of latest industry developments, trends and regulatory issues within Bulgaria.
Business Monitor International's Bulgaria Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Bulgarian oil and gas industry.
Key Benefits of Report Benchmark BMI’s Independent 10-Year Oil & Gas Industry Forecast for Bulgaria to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Bulgarian oil and gas market.
Target Business Opportunities & Risks in the Bulgarian Oil & Gas Sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Bulgaria.
Exploit The Latest Competitive Bulgarian Oil & Gas Intelligence & Company SWOTS on your competitors and peers through company rankings by sales, market share and ownership structure - includes multi national and national companies in Bulgaria.
CoverageExecutive Summary
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand, refining, coal and power, and primary energy, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
Regional Overview
Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports; overview of industry landscape and key players; assessment of business operating environment and latest regulatory developments.
Business Environment Rankings
A unique comparative study undertaken by BMI on the relative business climates across all regional markets covered. A rankings table highlights the merits of each market from an investor angle, giving scores for indicators such as Oil & Gas Supply and Demand Growth, Oil & Gas Reserves, Licensing Framework and the local Competitive Environment, as well as Economic and Political Risk.
Oil Market Outlook
BMI analyses and forecasts oil prices out to , monitoring supply and demand in terms of oil production and consumption across the region.
BMI 10-Year Industry Forecast
Historic data series and 10-year forecasts to end- for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (000 b/d)
Oil exports (000 b/d), value of oil exports (US$mn - BMI base case) - Oil price (US$/bbl, OPEC basket)
Value of oil exports at constant US$30/bbl and constant US$60/bbl (US$mn)
Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)
Gas exports/(imports) (bcm)
Value of gas exports/(imports) (US$mn); value of gas exports/(imports) at constant US$30/bbl and US$60/bbl (US$mn)
Value of petroleum exports (US$mn); value of petroleum exports at constant US$30/bbl and US$60/bbl (US$mn)
BMI 10-Year Macroeconomic Forecast
BMI forecasts for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Competitive Landscape & Rankings
Comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, oil production (‘000 b/d) and % market share, downstream capacity (‘000 b/d) and % market share.
Company Profiles & SWOTS
Company profiles, including SWOT analyses, senior executives and full contact details, business activity, products and services, foreign direct investments and projects. Executive Summary
The latest Bulgaria Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 2.21% of Central and Eastern European (CEE) regional oil demand by 2013, while making no meaningful contribution to supply. CEE regional oil use of 4.65mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 rose to 5.27mn b/d in 2007. It should average 5.36mn b/d in 2008 and then rise to around 5.99mn b/d by 2013. Regional production of 12.92mn b/d in 2007 is forecast to reach 14.96mn b/d by 2013. In terms of natural gas, the region in 2007 consumed 619bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 753bcm targeted for 2013, representing 21.61% growth. Production of 756bcm in 2007 should reach 913bcm in 2013, which implies net exports rising from 137bcm in 2007 to 161bcm by the end of the period. Bulgaria’s share of consumption in 2007 was 0.50%, while it has no significant share of production. By 2013, its share of demand is forecast to be 0.70%.
In Q308, we estimate that the OPEC basket price averaged US$113.60 per barrel (bbl) – down around 3.4% from the Q208 level. The OPEC basket price averaged US$112.41/bbl in August and US$97.16/bbl in September. In October, we are assuming an average of around US$113.30/bbl. The estimated Q308 average prices for the main marker blends are now US$115.67/bbl for Brent, US$117.22/bbl for WTI and US$113.43/bbl for Russian Urals (Mediterranean delivery). Our projections for 2008 as a whole are unchanged from the last oil market report. We are still assuming an OPEC basket price average of US$110/bbl for 2008. Based on recent price differentials, this implies Brent at US$113.33/bbl, WTI averaging US$114.58/bbl, and Urals at US$110.36/bbl. Our central view is that the OPEC basket price will fall from US$110/bbl in 2008 to US$96/bbl in 2009, before settling around US$90/bbl in 2010 onwards.
In terms of our refined products forecasts, the BMI composite (Rotterdam, Singapore and New York) global indicator price for unleaded gasoline is expected to average approximately US$117.50/bbl during 2008. Our jet forecast for 2008 is just under US$141/bbl, up from US$89 in 2007. The 60% annual increase represents the second biggest for the key refined products. With gasoil, BMI is assuming a similar gain in 2008, to an average US$137/bbl. Naphtha is expected to exhibit more modest growth, rising from US$75 to US$106/bbl (+41%). During 2009, we are expecting products prices to follow the underlying crude trend lower, but to prove more resilient than the feedstock – implying a recovery in refining margins. Gasoline in 2009 is estimated at US$103/bbl, with jet falling to US$127/bbl. Gasoil is expected to average US$122/bbl, with naphtha slipping to US$91/bbl.
Bulgarian real GDP growth is forecast by BMI at 5.6% for 2008, following 6.2% in 2007. We are assuming 5.2% growth in 2009, 5.7% in 2010, followed by 5.6% in 2011, 5.0% in 2012 and 4.4% in 2013. Oil demand is rising at 2.0% per annum, which suggests that consumption could reach 132,000b/d by 2013. Imports can be expected to grow in line, as exploration efforts in the largely privatized hydrocarbons sector by small international oil companies (IOCs) do not appear likely to deliver increased domestic crude volumes. Gas consumption is rising well ahead of domestic supply. While gas output could reach 1.5bcm by the end of 2013, demand is heading for 5.30bcm, requiring imports of 3.80bcm
Between 2007 and 2018, we are forecasting an increase in Bulgarian oil consumption of 21.9%, with import volumes rising steadily from 119,000b/d to 145,000b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Gas production should rise from the 2007 level of 0.9bcm to a peak of 1.5bcm in 2013/14, before easing to 1.2bcm by 2018. Import dependency therefore increases from 2.2bcm to 5.6bcm during the period. Details of the new BMI 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report, which provides global, regional and country-specific projections.
Bulgaria shares ninth place with the Czech Republic in BMI’s updated Upstream Business Environment rating. Its minimal oil and gas reserves, poor production outlook, and limited competitive landscape work against the country, but are offset somewhat by reasonable country risk factors. Long-term scope exists for Bulgaria to challenge Romania above it. The country is well in the lower half of the league table in BMI’s Downstream Business Environment rating, with few particularly high scores and no reason to expect near-term progress further up the rankings. Refining capacity is among the region’s lowest, while gas consumption is particularly modest. The relatively high level of retail site intensity represents a weak suit, although gas demand growth prospects are the best in the CEE region. Croatia shares 11th place with Bulgaria, and has no greater re-rating potential over the longer term.