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Table of Contents

Management Report
Published: April 2009
Pages: 127
Tables: For full details, please email keithw@cmsinfo.com
From: GBP 585.00   Buy Now!
Research from: Business Monitor International
Sector: Oil & Gas

The Brazil Oil & Gas Report
Independent 10-year oil and gas industry forecasts for Brazil.
Original oil and gas market research and oil and gas sector trend analysis for Brazil’s oil and gas industry.
Competitive intelligence, Brazilian oil and gas company rankings and SWOT analyses on international and domestic oil and gas companies in Brazil.
The Brazil Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source in 2008, and features latest available data and forecasts for Brazil to end- covering headline indicators for oil & gas, LNG, coal and power; company rankings and competitive landscapes covering oil & gas exploration and production in Brazil, refining, oil & gas distribution and fuels retailing; and analysis of latest industry developments, trends and regulatory issues within Brazil.

Business Monitor International's Brazil Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Brazilian oil and gas industry.


Key Benefits of Report Benchmark BMI’s Independent 10-Year Oil & Gas Industry Forecast for Brazil to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Brazilian oil and gas market.
Target Business Opportunities & Risks in the Brazilian Oil & Gas Sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Brazil.
Exploit The Latest Competitive Brazilian Oil & Gas Intelligence & Company SWOTS on your competitors and peers through company rankings by sales, market share and ownership structure - includes multi national and national companies in Brazil.
CoverageExecutive Summary
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand, refining, coal and power, and primary energy, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview
Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports; overview of industry landscape and key players; assessment of business operating environment and latest regulatory developments.

Business Environment Rankings
A unique comparative study undertaken by BMI on the relative business climates across all regional markets covered. A rankings table highlights the merits of each market from an investor angle, giving scores for indicators such as Oil & Gas Supply and Demand Growth, Oil & Gas Reserves, Licensing Framework and the local Competitive Environment, as well as Economic and Political Risk.

Oil Market Outlook
BMI analyses and forecasts oil prices out to , monitoring supply and demand in terms of oil production and consumption across the region.

BMI 10-Year Industry Forecast
Historic data series and 10-year forecasts to end- for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (000 b/d)
Oil exports (000 b/d), value of oil exports (US$mn - BMI base case) - Oil price (US$/bbl, OPEC basket)
Value of oil exports at constant US$30/bbl and constant US$60/bbl (US$mn)
Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)
Gas exports/(imports) (bcm)
Value of gas exports/(imports) (US$mn); value of gas exports/(imports) at constant US$30/bbl and US$60/bbl (US$mn)
Value of petroleum exports (US$mn); value of petroleum exports at constant US$30/bbl and US$60/bbl (US$mn)
BMI 10-Year Macroeconomic Forecast
BMI forecasts for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape & Rankings
Comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, oil production (‘000 b/d) and % market share, downstream capacity (‘000 b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles & SWOTS
Company profiles, including SWOT analyses, senior executives and full contact details, business activity, products and services, foreign direct investments and projects.

Executive Summary

The latest Brazil Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 31.80% of Latin American regional oil demand by 2013, while providing 27.36% of supply. Latin America regional oil use of 6.66mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 reached an estimated 7.72mn b/d in 2008. It should average 7.86mn b/d in 2009 and then rise to around 8.58mn b/d by 2013. Regional oil production was just under 10.40mn b/d in 2001, and in 2008 averaged an estimated 9.99mn b/d. It is set to rise to 10.78mn b/d by 2013. Oil exports are slipping, because demand growth is exceeding the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average 3.73mn b/d. This total had fallen to an estimated 2.27mn b/d in 2008 and is forecast to be 2.21mn b/d in 2013.

In terms of natural gas, the Latin America region in 2008 consumed an estimated 194bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 266bcm targeted for 2013, representing 45% growth. Estimated production of 208bcm in 2008 should reach 294bcm in 2013, and implies 28bcm of net exports at the end of the period. Brazil's share of gas consumption in 2008 was an estimated 12.09%, while its share of production was 6%. By 2013, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 11.39%, with the country accounting for 8.51% of supply.

In terms of the OPEC basket of crudes, the average price in the fourth quarter of 2008 (Q408) was an estimated US$52.53/bbl, down sharply from the US$113.49 recorded during the previous three months. The full year 2008 average is put by BMI at US$94.08/bbl, representing a 36% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase. North Sea Brent, WTI and Russian Urals are believed to have averaged US$97.06, US$99.33 and US$94.56/bbl respectively during 2008. For 2009, we are now assuming an average OPEC basket price of US$52/bbl (-45% y-o-y), with Q109 expected to deliver US$40.00. The new full year forecast implies Brent crude at US$55.65, WTI averaging US$56.63/bbl and Urals at US$52.48 for 2009. For 2010, we expect to see a recovery to US$58.00/bbl for the OPEC price, gaining further ground to US$65.00 in 2011 and US$70.00/bbl in 2012. We are now using a long-term price assumption of US$70.00 for 2013-2018, down from our previous assumption of US$90.00/bbl.

In 2009, we see monthly average global wholesale gasoline prices ranging from US$38.90 in January to a high of US$64.90 reached in August and in December, providing a full year average of US$56.20 – just over 55% of the 2008 outturn. The 2009 BMI gasoil forecast is for an average price of US$67 per barrel (bbl), assuming a monthly low of US$46.40 in January and a high of US$77.30/bbl in December. The full-year outturn represents a 45% downturn from the 2008 level. For 2009, the monthly average jet fuel price is forecast to range from US$47.90 in January to US$79.80/bbl in August, proving an annual level of US$69.20/bbl.

Brazilian real GDP growth is now forecast by BMI at 2.3% for 2009, following an estimated 5.7% in 2008. We are assuming 2.6% growth in 2010, 4.3% in 2011, followed by 4.5% in 2012 and 4.1% in 2013. Partly-privatised deepwater specialist Petrobras will continue to partner international oil companies (IOCs) in supporting output growth efforts, while dominating domestic production. We are assuming oil and gas liquids production of at least 2.95mn b/d by 2013, with the country expected to pump 2.30mn b/d in 2009. Consumption is forecast to increase by 3.0-3.5% per annum to 2013, implying demand of 2.73mn b/d by the end of the forecast period. The export capability would therefore be approximately 0.56mn b/d by 2013. Gas production is forecast to increase from an estimated 12.5bcm in 2008 to 25.0bcm over the period to 2013, with consumption climbing from 23.4bcm to 30.4bcm.

Between 2007 and 2018, we are forecasting an increase in Brazilian oil production of 135%, with crude volumes rising steadily to 4.3mn b/d by 2018. Oil consumption between 2007 and 2018 is set to increase by 41%, with growth slowing to an assumed 2% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 3.09mn b/d by 2018. Gas production is expected to rise gradually, from an estimated 12.5bcm in 2008 to 35.0bcm by 2018. With demand growth of 68%, this provides a net import requirement falling from an estimated 10.9bcm to 1.9bcm during the 10-year period. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report, which provides global, regional and country-specific projections.

Brazil this quarter retakes outright first place in BMI’s updated Upstream Business Environment rating, moving ahead of Venezuela, thanks to the size of the oil resource base, output growth prospects, attractive licensing regime and competitive environment. While some weak points exist in terms of the country’s risk ratings and only mid-table reserves-to-production ratios (RPR), its position at the head of the regional league table continues to look unassailable. Its sound long-term outlook should see Brazil keeping clear of Venezuela from here on. The country still tops the league table in BMI’s updated Downstream Business Environment rating, reflecting its region-beating oil demand, substantial refining capacity and competitive environment. Colombia ranks second, but is now five points behind the regional leader. Therefore, we see no obvious threat to Brazil over the medium term.

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Table of Contents

Chapter - Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Brazil Political SWOT
Brazil Economic SWOT
Brazil Business Environment SWOT
Chapter - Brazil Energy Market Overview
Global Oil Market Outlook
Storing Up Trouble
Revised Forecasts
Chapter - Global Oil Market Review
One-Way Traffic
Table: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d)
12-Month Demand Outlook
Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d)
12-Month Supply Outlook
Longer-Term Supply And Demand
Oil Price Assumptions
Table: Crude Price Assumptions 2008/2009
Table: Oil Price Forecasts
Chapter - Global Oil Products Price Outlook
Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions 2009 (US$/bbl)
Table: Oil Product Price Forecasts (US$/bbl)
Chapter - Global Oil Products Market Review
Regional Energy Market Overview
Oil Supply And Demand
Table: Latin America Oil Consumption (000b/d)
Table: Latin America Oil Production (000b/d)
Oil: Downstream
Table: Latin America Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d)
Gas Supply And Demand
Table: Latin America Gas Consumption (bcm)
Table: Latin America Gas Production (bcm)
Liquefied Natural Gas
Table: Latin America LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm)
Chapter - Business Environment Ranking
Latin America Region
Composite Scores
Table: Regional Upstream Business Environment Rating
Table: Regional Downstream Business Environment Rating
Upstream Scores
Downstream Scores
Brazil Upstream Rating – Overview
Brazil Upstream Rating – Potential Returns
Brazil Upstream Rating – Risks to Potential Returns
Brazil Downstream Rating – Overview
Brazil Downstream Rating – Potential Returns
Brazil Downstream Rating – Risks to Potential Returns
Chapter - Business Environment
Legal Framework
Infrastructure
Labour Force
Foreign Investment Policy
Tax Regime
Chapter - Industry Forecast Scenario
Oil And Gas Reserves
Oil Supply And Demand
Gas Supply And Demand
Liquefied Natural Gas
Refining And Oil Products Trade
Revenues/Import Costs
Table: Brazil's Oil & Gas Sector – Historical Data & Forecasts
Other Energy
Table: Brazil Other Energy – Historical Data & Forecasts
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
Long-Term Oil & Gas Outlook
Chapter - Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Brazil - Economic Activity
Chapter - Competitive Landscape
Executive Summary
Table: Key Players In Brazil's Oil & Gas Sector
Overview/State Role
Table: Key Upstream Players In Brazil's Oil & Gas Sector
Table: Key Downstream Players In Brazil's Oil & Gas Sector
Chapter - Company Monitor
Petróleo Brasileiro SA – Petrobras
Shell Brasil
Repsol YPF Brasil
Esso Brasileira de Petróleo
Chevron Brasil
Ultrapar Participações (Grupo Ultra)
BG do Brasil
BP Brasil
StatoilHydro do Brasil
Galp Energia - Summary
Eni - Summary
Mitsui – Summary
Devon – Summary
Cosan – Summary
Vale – Summary
Anadarko – Summary
Chapter - Glossary of Terms
Oil & Gas Ratings: Revised Methodology
Introduction
Ratings Overview
Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings: Structure
Indicators
Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings: Methodology
Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings: Methodology
Chapter - Oil & Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts
Global Oil Demand
Table: Global Oil Demand (000b/d)
Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d)
Global Oil Supply
Global Gas Demand
Table: Global Gas Demand (bcm)
Global Gas Supply
Table: Global Gas Production (bcm)
Regional Oil Demand
Table: Latin America Oil Consumption (000b/d)
Regional Oil Supply
Table: Latin America Oil Production (000b/d)
Regional Refining Capacity
Table: Latin America Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d)
Regional Gas Demand
Table: Latin America Gas Consumption (bcm)
Regional Gas Supply
Table: Latin America Gas Production (bcm)
Brazil Country Overview
Methodology & Risks To Forecasts
Chapter - BMI Forecast Modelling
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Energy Industry
Cross checks
Sources

For full details, please email keithw@cmsinfo.com

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