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Table of Contents

Management Report
Published: April 2009
Pages: 82
Tables: For full details, please email keithw@cmsinfo.com
From: GBP 585.00   Buy Now!
Research from: Business Monitor International
Sector: Oil & Gas

The Bolivia Oil & Gas Report
Independent 10-year oil and gas industry forecasts for Bolivia.
Original oil and gas market research and oil and gas sector trend analysis for Bolivia’s oil and gas industry.
Competitive intelligence, Bolivian oil and gas company rankings and SWOT analyses on international and domestic oil and gas companies in Bolivia.
The Bolivia Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source in 2008, and features latest available data and forecasts for Bolivia to end- covering headline indicators for oil & gas, LNG, coal and power; company rankings and competitive landscapes covering oil & gas exploration and production in Bolivia, refining, oil & gas distribution and fuels retailing; and analysis of latest industry developments, trends and regulatory issues within Bolivia.

Business Monitor International's Bolivia Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Bolivian oil and gas industry.


Key Benefits of Report Benchmark BMI’s Independent 10-Year Oil & Gas Industry Forecast for Bolivia to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Bolivian oil and gas market.
Target Business Opportunities & Risks in the Bolivian Oil & Gas Sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Bolivia.
Exploit The Latest Competitive Bolivian Oil & Gas Intelligence & Company SWOTS on your competitors and peers through company rankings by sales, market share and ownership structure - includes multi national and national companies in Bolivia.
CoverageExecutive Summary
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand, refining, coal and power, and primary energy, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview
Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports; overview of industry landscape and key players; assessment of business operating environment and latest regulatory developments.

Business Environment Rankings
A unique comparative study undertaken by BMI on the relative business climates across all regional markets covered. A rankings table highlights the merits of each market from an investor angle, giving scores for indicators such as Oil & Gas Supply and Demand Growth, Oil & Gas Reserves, Licensing Framework and the local Competitive Environment, as well as Economic and Political Risk.

Oil Market Outlook
BMI analyses and forecasts oil prices out to , monitoring supply and demand in terms of oil production and consumption across the region.

BMI 10-Year Industry Forecast
Historic data series and 10-year forecasts to end- for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (000 b/d)
Oil exports (000 b/d), value of oil exports (US$mn - BMI base case) - Oil price (US$/bbl, OPEC basket)
Value of oil exports at constant US$30/bbl and constant US$60/bbl (US$mn)
Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)
Gas exports/(imports) (bcm)
Value of gas exports/(imports) (US$mn); value of gas exports/(imports) at constant US$30/bbl and US$60/bbl (US$mn)
Value of petroleum exports (US$mn); value of petroleum exports at constant US$30/bbl and US$60/bbl (US$mn)
BMI 10-Year Macroeconomic Forecast
BMI forecasts for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape & Rankings
Comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, oil production (‘000 b/d) and % market share, downstream capacity (‘000 b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles & SWOTS
Company profiles, including SWOT analyses, senior executives and full contact details, business activity, products and services, foreign direct investments and projects.

Executive Summary

The new Bolivia Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 0.75% of Latin American regional oil demand by 2013, while providing 0.59% of supply. Latin America regional oil use of 6.66mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 reached an estimated 7.72mn b/d in 2008. It should average 7.86mn b/d in 2009 and then rise to around 8.58mn b/d by 2013. Regional oil production was just under 10.40mn b/d in 2001, and in 2008 averaged an estimated 9.99mn b/d. It is set to rise to 10.78mn b/d by 2013. Oil exports are slipping, because demand growth is exceeding the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average 3.73mn b/d. This total had fallen to an estimated 2.27mn b/d in 2008 and is forecast to be 2.21mn b/d in 2013.

In terms of natural gas, the Latin America region in 2008 consumed an estimated 194bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 266bcm targeted for 2013, representing 45% growth. Estimated production of 208bcm in 2008 should reach 294bcm in 2013, and implies 28bcm of net exports the end of the period. Bolivia’s share of gas consumption in 2008 was an estimated 1.34%, while its share of production is put at 7.20%. By 2013, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 1.19%, with the country accounting for 7.33% of supply.

In terms of the OPEC basket of crudes, the average price in Q4 2008 was an estimated US$52.53/bbl, down sharply from the US$113.49 recorded during the previous three months. The full year 2008 average is put by BMI at US$94.08/bbl, representing a 36% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase. North Sea Brent, WTI and Russian Urals are believed to have averaged US$97.06, US$99.33 and US$94.56/bbl respectively during 2008. For 2009, we are now assuming an average OPEC basket price of US$52/bbl (-45% y-o-y), with Q109 expected to deliver US$40.00. The new full year forecast implies Brent crude at US$55.65, WTI averaging US$56.63/bbl and Urals at US$52.48 for 2009. For 2010, we expect to see a recovery to US$58.00/bbl for the OPEC price, gaining further ground to US$65.00 in 2011 and US$70.00/bbl in 2012. We are now using a long-term price assumption of US$70.00 for 2013-2018, down from our previous assumption of US$90.00/bbl.

In 2009, we see monthly average global wholesale gasoline prices ranging from US$38.90 in January to a high of US$64.90 reached in August and in December, providing a full year average of US$56.20 – just over 55% of the 2008 outturn. The 2009 BMI gasoil forecast is for an average price of US$67/bbl, assuming a monthly low of US$46.40 in January and a high of US$77.30/bbl in December. The full-year outturn represents a 45% downturn from the 2008 level. For 2009, the monthly average jet fuel price is forecast to range from US$47.90 in January to US$79.80/bbl in August, proving an annual level of US$69.20 per barrel (bbl).

Bolivian real GDP growth is forecast by BMI at 4.0% for 2009, down from an estimated 5.0% in 2008. We are assuming average annual 3.5% growth in 2010-12. There is increasing state control of oil and gas operations, thanks to government policy that supports re-nationalisation. This means that the burden of development falls heavily on state-owned Yacimientos Petrolíferos Fiscales Bolivianos (YPFB) and its few remaining international oil company (IOC) partners. We are assuming oil and gas liquids production of no more than 64,000b/d by 2013, and the country is expected to pump 57,000b/d in 2009. Consumption is forecast to increase by around 3.0% per annum to 2013, implying demand of 64,000b/d by the end of the forecast period.

Between 2007 and 2018, we are forecasting a decrease in Bolivian oil production of just 4.0%, with crude volumes peaking in 2011/12 at 65,000b/d, before falling steadily to 58,000b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Oil consumption between 2007 and 2018 is set to increase by 33.1%, with growth slowing to an assumed 2.0% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 72,000 b/d by 2018. Gas production is expected to rise gradually, from around 15.0bcm in 2008 to a peak of 21.5bcm in 2013/14, before slipping back to 19.9bcm by 2018. With demand growth of 22%, this provides export potential falling from a forecast peak of 18.4bcm in 2013 to 16.0bcm by 2018. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report, which provides global, regional and country-specific projections.

Bolivia still holds eighth place in BMI’s Upstream Business Environment rating, five points behind Ecuador but well ahead of Mexico. Its proven gas resources and gas reserves-to-production ratio (RPR) work in the country’s favour, but are undermined by the state’s renewed control of assets, deteriorating licensing regime and generally unappealing risk environment. The country is at the foot of the league table in BMI’s updated Downstream Business Environment rating, reflecting its state-controlled refining and marketing segment, modest capacity and less competitive environment, offset by a relatively low level of retail site intensity and the country’s gas self-sufficiency. Ecuador is immediately ahead of Bolivia in the regional rankings, but a wide gap exists between the two that is unlikely to be bridged by Bolivia at any point in the near future.

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Table of Contents

Chapter - Executive Summary
Bolivia Energy Market Overview
Global Oil Market Outlook
Storing Up Trouble
Revised Forecasts
Chapter - Global Oil Market Review
One-Way Traffic
Table: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d)
12-Month Demand Outlook
Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d)
12-Month Supply Outlook
Longer-Term Supply And Demand
Oil Price Assumptions
Table: Crude Price Assumptions 2008/2009
Table: Oil Price Forecasts
Chapter - Global Oil Products Price Outlook
Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions 2009 (US$/bbl)
Table: Oil Product Price Forecasts (US$/bbl)
Chapter - Global Oil Products Market Review
Regional Energy Market Overview
Oil Supply And Demand
Table: Latin America Oil Consumption (000b/d)
Table: Latin America Oil Production (000b/d)
Oil: Downstream
Table: Latin America Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d)
Gas Supply And Demand
Table: Latin America Gas Consumption (bcm)
Table: Latin America Gas Production (bcm)
Liquefied Natural Gas
Table: Latin America LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm)
Chapter - Business Environment Ranking
Latin America Region
Composite Scores
Table: Regional Upstream Business Environment Rating
Table: Regional Downstream Business Environment Rating
Upstream Scores
Downstream Scores
Bolivia Upstream Rating – Overview
Bolivia Upstream Rating – Potential Returns
Bolivia Upstream Rating – Risks To Potential Returns
Bolivia Downstream Rating – Overview
Bolivia Downstream Rating – Potential Returns
Bolivia Downstream Rating – Risks To Potential Returns
Chapter - Business Environment
Political Risk
Economic Risk
Business Environment
Chapter - Industry Forecast Scenario
Oil And Gas Reserves
Oil Supply And Demand
Gas Supply And Demand
LNG
Refining And Oil Products Trade
Revenues/Import Costs
Table: Bolivia Oil & Gas – Historical data & Forecasts
Other Energy
Table: Bolivia Other Energy – Historical Data & Forecasts
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
Long-Term Energy Outlook
Chapter - Macroeconomic Forecasts – Bolivia
Bolivia - Macroeconomic Forecasts
Chapter - Competitive Landscape
Executive Summary
Table: Key Players – Bolivia Oil And Gas Sector
Overview/State Role
Table: Key Upstream Players
Table: Key Downstream Players
Chapter - Company Monitor
Yacimientos Petrolíferos Fiscales Bolivianos
Repsol YPF – Summary
Petrobras – Summary
BG – Summary
BP/PAE/Chaco – Summary
Transredes – Summary
Compañía Logística de Hidrocarburos Boliviana – Summary
Chapter - Glossary of Terms
Oil & Gas Ratings: Revised Methodology
Introduction
Ratings Overview
Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings: Structure
Indicators
Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings: Methodology
Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings: Methodology
Chapter - Oil & Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts
Global Oil Demand
Table: Global Oil Demand (000b/d)
Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d)
Global Oil Supply
Global Gas Demand
Table: Global Gas Demand (bcm)
Global Gas Supply
Table: Global Gas Production (bcm)
Regional Oil Demand
Table: Latin America Oil Consumption (000b/d)
Regional Oil Supply
Table: Latin America Oil Production (000b/d)
Regional Refining Capacity
Table: Latin America Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d)
Regional Gas Demand
Table: Latin America Gas Consumption (bcm)
Regional Gas Supply
Table: Latin America Gas Production (bcm)
Bolivia Country Overview
Methodology & Risks To Forecasts
Chapter - BMI Forecast Modelling
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Energy Industry
Sources

For full details, please email keithw@cmsinfo.com

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