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Management Report
Published: May 2009
Pages: 78
Tables: For full details, please email keithw@cmsinfo.com
From: GBP 585.00   Buy Now!
Research from: Business Monitor International
Sector: Oil & Gas

The Belgium Oil & Gas Report
Independent 10-year oil and gas industry forecasts for Belgium.
Original oil and gas market research and oil and gas sector trend analysis for Belgium’s oil and gas industry.
Competitive intelligence, Belgian oil and gas company rankings and SWOT analyses on international and domestic oil and gas companies in Belgium.
The Belgium Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source in 2008, and features latest available data and forecasts for Belgium to end- covering headline indicators for oil & gas, LNG, coal and power; company rankings and competitive landscapes covering oil & gas exploration and production in Belgium, refining, oil & gas distribution and fuels retailing; and analysis of latest industry developments, trends and regulatory issues within Belgium.

Business Monitor International's Belgium Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Belgian oil and gas industry.


Key Benefits of Report Benchmark BMI’s Independent 10-Year Oil & Gas Industry Forecast for Belgium to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Belgian oil and gas market.
Target Business Opportunities & Risks in the Belgian Oil & Gas Sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Belgium.
Exploit The Latest Competitive Belgian Oil & Gas Intelligence & Company SWOTS on your competitors and peers through company rankings by sales, market share and ownership structure - includes multi national and national companies in Belgium.
CoverageExecutive Summary
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand, refining, coal and power, and primary energy, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview
Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports; overview of industry landscape and key players; assessment of business operating environment and latest regulatory developments.

Business Environment Rankings
A unique comparative study undertaken by BMI on the relative business climates across all regional markets covered. A rankings table highlights the merits of each market from an investor angle, giving scores for indicators such as Oil & Gas Supply and Demand Growth, Oil & Gas Reserves, Licensing Framework and the local Competitive Environment, as well as Economic and Political Risk.

Oil Market Outlook
BMI analyses and forecasts oil prices out to , monitoring supply and demand in terms of oil production and consumption across the region.

BMI 10-Year Industry Forecast
Historic data series and 10-year forecasts to end- for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (000 b/d)
Oil exports (000 b/d), value of oil exports (US$mn - BMI base case) - Oil price (US$/bbl, OPEC basket)
Value of oil exports at constant US$30/bbl and constant US$60/bbl (US$mn)
Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)
Gas exports/(imports) (bcm)
Value of gas exports/(imports) (US$mn); value of gas exports/(imports) at constant US$30/bbl and US$60/bbl (US$mn)
Value of petroleum exports (US$mn); value of petroleum exports at constant US$30/bbl and US$60/bbl (US$mn)
BMI 10-Year Macroeconomic Forecast
BMI forecasts for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape & Rankings
Comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, oil production (‘000 b/d) and % market share, downstream capacity (‘000 b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles & SWOTS
Company profiles, including SWOT analyses, senior executives and full contact details, business activity, products and services, foreign direct investments and projects.

Executive Summary

The new Belgium Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 6.05% of Developed European regional oil demand by 2013, while making no appreciable contribution to supply. In Developed Europe, overall oil consumption reached 13.88mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2007. It is set to rise to around 14.12mn b/d by 2013. In terms of natural gas, the Developed Europe region in 2007 consumed 434bcm, with demand of 492bcm targeted for 2013, representing 13.4% growth. Production of 264bcm in 2007 should rise to 279bcm in 2013, which implies net imports rising from the 2007 level of 170bcm to some 213bcm by the end of the period. Belgium’s share of gas consumption in 2007 was 3.89%, while it makes no meaningful contribution to regional production. By 2013, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 3.63%.

In Q308, we estimate that the OPEC basket price averaged US$113.60 per barrel – down around 3.4% from the Q208 level. The OPEC basket price averaged US$112.41 in August and US$97.16/bbl in September. In October, we are assuming an average of around US$113.30. The estimated Q308 average prices for the main marker blends are now US$115.67 for Brent, US$117.22 for WTI and US$113.43/bbl for Russian Urals (Mediterranean delivery). Our projections for 2008 as a whole are unchanged from the last oil market report. We are still assuming an OPEC basket price average of US$110 per barrel for 2008. Based on recent price differentials, this implies Brent at US$113.33, WTI averaging US$114.58/bbl, and Urals at US$110.36/bbl. Our central view is that the OPEC basket price will fall from US$110/bbl in 2008 to US$96 in 2009, before settling around US$90/bbl in 2010 onwards.

In terms of our refined products forecasts, the BMI composite (Rotterdam, Singapore and New York) global indicator price for unleaded gasoline is expected to average approximately US$117.50/bbl during 2008. Our jet forecast for 2008 is just under US$141/bbl, up from US$89 in 2007. The 60% annual increase represents the second biggest for the key refined products. With gasoil, BMI is assuming a similar gain in 2008, to an average US$137/bbl. Naphtha is expected to exhibit more modest growth, rising from US$75 to US$106/bbl (+41%). During 2009, we are expecting products prices to follow the underlying crude trend lower, but to prove more resilient than the feedstock – implying a recovery in refining margins. Gasoline in 2009 is estimated at US$103/bbl, with jet falling to US$127. Gasoil is expected to average US$122, with naphtha slipping to US$91/bbl.

Belgian real GDP growth is estimated by BMI at 1.7% for 2008, down from 2.8% in 2007. We are assuming an average 1.8% growth in 2008-2013. Ongoing oil demand growth averaging no more than 0.5% per annum is expected. Our forecast is for Belgium/Luxembourg oil consumption to rise from 839,000b/d in 2007 to 854,000b/d by 2013. From 16.9bcm in 2007, we expect to see gas demand rise to a minimum of 17.9bcm by 2013, all met by increased pipeline and liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports.

Between 2007 and 2018, we are forecasting an increase in Belgian oil and gas liquids consumption of just 2.4%, with volumes rising slowly from 839,000b/d in 2007 to a peak of 859,000b/d by the end of the 10- year forecast period, with a dip in demand during 2008/09 as a response to soaring prices. Gas demand should rise from the 2007 level of 17bcm to 19bcm by 2017/18, all based on LNG and pipeline imports. Details of the new BMI 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report, which provides global, regional and country-specific projections.

The long-term political risk score for Belgium is 74.7, the lowest in our Developed Markets universe, behind even Italy, and well below the Developed Markets average of 85.6. Our long-term economic rating for the country is 66.2, below the Developed Markets average of 69.0. Our business environment rating is 65.5, which is below the Developed Markets average of 68.3. Belgium has a privatised energy sector operating under EU guidelines. There is no upstream oil and gas segment, but downstream oil and gas features a mixture of international oil companies (IOCs) and former state companies now in foreign hands. Both the gas and power markets are substantially open to competition, with full opening imminent.

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Table of Contents

Chapter - SWOT Analysis
Belgium Political SWOT
Belgium Economic SWOT
Chapter - Belgium Energy Market Overview
Global Oil Market Overview
Table: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d)
Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d)
Chapter - Oil Price Outlook
Table: Crude Price Assumptions 2007-2008
Revised Forecasts
Table: Oil Price Forecasts
Chapter - Oil Products Price Outlook
Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions 2008-2009 (US$/bbl)
Table: Oil Product Price Forecasts (US$/bbl)
Chapter - Regional Energy Market Overview
Oil Supply And Demand
Table: Developed Markets Oil Consumption (000b/d)
Table: Developed Markets Oil Production (000b/d)
Oil: Downstream
Table: Developed Markets Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d)
Gas Supply And Demand
Table: Developed Markets Gas Consumption (bcm)
Table: Developed Markets Gas Production (bcm)
Liquefied Natural Gas
Table: Developed Markets LNG Imports/(Exports) (bcm)
Chapter - Industry Forecast Scenario
Oil and Gas Reserves
Oil Supply and Demand
Gas Supply and Demand
LNG
Refining and Oil Products Trade
Revenues/Import Costs
Table: Belgium Oil & Gas – Historical data & Forecasts
Other Energy
Table: Belgium Other Energy – Historical data & Forecasts
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
Long-Term Oil & Gas Outlook
Chapter - Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Belgium - Economic Activity
Chapter - Competitive Landscape
Executive Summary
Table: Key Players – Belgian Oil And Gas Sector
Overview/State Role
Table: Key Downstream Players
Chapter - Company Monitor
Total
ExxonMobil
Petroplus
Distrigas
Chapter - Glossary of Terms
Oil & Gas Ratings: Revised Methodology
Introduction
Ratings Overview
Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings: Structure
Indicators
Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings: Methodology
Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings: Methodology
Chapter - Oil & Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts
Global Oil Demand
Global Oil Demand (000b/d)
Global Oil Production (000b/d)
Global Oil Supply
Global Gas Demand
Global Gas Demand (bcm)
Global Gas Supply
Global Gas Production (bcm)
Regional Oil Demand
Developed Europe Oil Consumption (000b/d)
Regional Oil Supply
Developed Europe Oil Production (000b/d)
Regional Refining Capacity
Developed Europe Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d)
Regional Gas Demand
Developed Europe Gas Consumption (bcm)
Regional Gas Supply
Developed Europe Gas Production (bcm)
Belgium Country Overview
Belgium Oil & Gas – Long-Term Forecasts
Belgium Other Energy – Long-Term Forecasts
Methodology & Risks To Forecasts
Chapter - BMI Forecast Modelling
How we generate our industry forecasts
Energy Industry
Cross checks
Sources

For full details, please email keithw@cmsinfo.com

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