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Table of Contents

Management Report
Published: April 2009
Pages: 122
Tables: For full details, please email keithw@cmsinfo.com
From: GBP 585.00   Buy Now!
Research from: Business Monitor International
Sector: Oil & Gas

The Australia Oil & Gas Report
Independent 10-year oil and gas industry forecasts for Australia.
Original oil and gas market research and oil and gas sector trend analysis for Australia’s oil and gas industry.
Competitive intelligence, Australian oil and gas company rankings and SWOT analyses on international and domestic oil and gas companies in Australia.
The Australia Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source in 2008, and features latest available data and forecasts for Australia to end- covering headline indicators for oil & gas, LNG, coal and power; company rankings and competitive landscapes covering oil & gas exploration and production in Australia, refining, oil & gas distribution and fuels retailing; and analysis of latest industry developments, trends and regulatory issues within Australia.

Business Monitor International's Australia Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Australian oil and gas industry.


Key Benefits of Report Benchmark BMI’s Independent 10-Year Oil & Gas Industry Forecast for Australia to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Australian oil and gas market.
Target Business Opportunities & Risks in the Australian Oil & Gas Sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Australia.
Exploit The Latest Competitive Australian Oil & Gas Intelligence & Company SWOTS on your competitors and peers through company rankings by sales, market share and ownership structure - includes multi national and national companies in Australia.
CoverageExecutive Summary
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand, refining, coal and power, and primary energy, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview
Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports; overview of industry landscape and key players; assessment of business operating environment and latest regulatory developments.

Business Environment Rankings
A unique comparative study undertaken by BMI on the relative business climates across all regional markets covered. A rankings table highlights the merits of each market from an investor angle, giving scores for indicators such as Oil & Gas Supply and Demand Growth, Oil & Gas Reserves, Licensing Framework and the local Competitive Environment, as well as Economic and Political Risk.

Oil Market Outlook
BMI analyses and forecasts oil prices out to , monitoring supply and demand in terms of oil production and consumption across the region.

BMI 10-Year Industry Forecast
Historic data series and 10-year forecasts to end- for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (000 b/d)
Oil exports (000 b/d), value of oil exports (US$mn - BMI base case) - Oil price (US$/bbl, OPEC basket)
Value of oil exports at constant US$30/bbl and constant US$60/bbl (US$mn)
Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)
Gas exports/(imports) (bcm)
Value of gas exports/(imports) (US$mn); value of gas exports/(imports) at constant US$30/bbl and US$60/bbl (US$mn)
Value of petroleum exports (US$mn); value of petroleum exports at constant US$30/bbl and US$60/bbl (US$mn)
BMI 10-Year Macroeconomic Forecast
BMI forecasts for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape & Rankings
Comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, oil production (‘000 b/d) and % market share, downstream capacity (‘000 b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles & SWOTS
Company profiles, including SWOT analyses, senior executives and full contact details, business activity, products and services, foreign direct investments and projects.

Executive Summary

The latest Australia Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 3.28% of Asia Pacific regional oil demand by 2013, while providing 5.79% of supply. Asia Pacific regional oil use of 21.40mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 reached an estimated 26.13mn b/d in 2008. It should average 26.50mn b/d in 2009, then rise to around 28.99mn b/d by 2013. Australia accounted for an estimated 3.56% of 2008 regional consumption. In terms of natural gas, in 2008 the region consumed an estimated 443bn cubic metres (bcm) and demand of 577bcm is targeted for 2013. Production of an estimated 361bcm in 2008 should reach 483bcm in 2013, but implies net imports rising from an estimated 82bcm per annum in 2008 to 94bcm in 2013. Australia’s share of gas consumption in 2008 was an estimated 5.84%, while its share of production is put at 12.45%. By 2013 its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 5.11%, with the country accounting for 12.82% of supply.

In terms of the OPEC basket of crudes, the average price in Q408 was an estimated US$52.53/bbl, down sharply from the US$113.49 recorded during the previous three months. The full year 2008 average is put by BMI at US$94.08/bbl, representing a 36% y-o-y increase. North Sea Brent, WTI and Russian Urals are believed to have averaged US$97.06, US$99.33 and US$94.56/bbl respectively during 2008. For 2009, we are now assuming an average OPEC basket price of US$52/bbl (-45% y-o-y), with Q109 expected to deliver US$40.00. The new full year forecast implies Brent crude at US$55.65, WTI averaging US$56.63/bbl and Urals at US$52.48 for 2009. For 2010, we expect to see a recovery to US$58.00/bbl for the OPEC price, gaining further ground to US$65.00 in 2011 and US$70.00/bbl in 2012. We are now using a long-term price assumption of US$70.00 for 2013-2018, down from our previous assumption of US$90.00/bbl.

In 2009, we see monthly average global wholesale gasoline prices ranging from US$38.90 in January to a high of US$64.90 reached in August and in December, providing a full year average of US$56.20 – just over 55% of the 2008 outturn. The 2009 BMI gasoil forecast is for an average price of US$67/bbl, assuming a monthly low of US$46.40 in January and a high of US$77.30/bbl in December. The full-year outturn represents a 45% downturn from the 2008 level. For 2009, the monthly average jet fuel price is forecast to range from US$47.90 in January to US$79.80/bbl in August, proving an annual level of US$69.20/bbl.

Australian real GDP growth is forecast by BMI at 1.7% for 2009, down from an estimated 2.0% in 2008. We are assuming growth of 3.0% in 2010 and 3.7% in 2011, followed by 3.4% in 2012 and 3.1% in 2013. There is no state oil industry, but a group of domestic and leading international companies is investing heavily in gas production and exports to help slow the rate of decline in Australia’s oil output. We are assuming oil and gas liquids production peaking at 610,000b/d in 2010, falling to 505,000b/d by 2013. Consumption is forecast to increase by less than 1.0% per annum to 2013, implying demand of 950,000b/d by the end of the forecast period. The import requirement would therefore be approximately 445,000b/d by 2013.

Between 2007 and 2018, we are forecasting a decrease in Australian oil production of 29.57%, with crude volumes peaking in 2010 at 610,000b/d, before falling steadily to 395,000b/d by the end of the period. Oil consumption between 2007 and 2018 is set to increase by 4.17%, with growth slowing to an assumed 0.5% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 974,000b/d by 2018. Gas production is expected to rise rapidly, from an estimated 45bcm in 2008 to a possible 92bcm by 2018 (+130%). With demand growth of 33%, this provides export potential rising from an estimated 19bcm to 59bcm, all in the form of LNG. Details of the BMI 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report, which provides global, regional and country-specific projections.

Australia still leads BMI’s updated Upstream Business Environment rating, with its balance of strong gas production/export potential, world class regulatory structure and solid risk environment proving to be a winning combination. However, the gap between it and second-placed India flatters Australia as it is due largely to the poorer country risk environment in India. The country is further down the league table in BMI’s Downstream Business Environment rating, reflecting its status as a mature, deregulated and competitive energy market with limited growth potential. It now occupies sixth place out of the 14 states, just ahead of Indonesia, and could slip still further down the rankings as Country Risk improves elsewhere in the region.

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Table of Contents

Chapter - Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Australia Political SWOT
Australia Economic SWOT Analysis
Australia Business Environment SWOT
Chapter - Australia Energy Market Overview
Global Oil Market Outlook
Storing Up Trouble
Revised Forecasts
Chapter - Global Oil Market Review
One-Way Traffic
Table: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d)
12-Month Demand Outlook
Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d)
12-Month Supply Outlook
Longer-Term Supply And Demand
Oil Price Assumptions
Table: Crude Price Assumptions 2008/2009
Table: Oil Price Forecasts
Chapter - Global Oil Products Price Outlook
Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions 2009 (US$/bbl)
Table: Oil Product Price Forecasts (US$/bbl)
Chapter - Global Oil Products Market Review
Regional Energy Market Overview
Oil Supply And Demand
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Consumption (000b/d)
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Production (000b/d)
Oil: Downstream
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d)
Gas Supply And Demand
Table: Asia Pacific Gas Consumption (bcm)
Table: Asia Pacific Gas Production (bcm)
Liquefied Natural Gas
Table: Asia Pacific LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm)
Chapter - Business Environment Ranking
Asia Pacific Region
Composite Scores
Table: Regional Upstream Business Environment Rating
Table: Regional Downstream Business Environment Rating
Upstream Scores
Downstream Scores
Australia Upstream Rating – Overview
Australia Upstream Rating – Potential Returns
Australia Upstream Rating – Risks To Potential Returns
Australia Downstream Rating – Overview
Australia Downstream Rating – Potential Returns
Australia Downstream Rating – Risks To Potential Returns
Chapter - Business Environment
Legal Framework
Infrastructure
Labour Force
Foreign Investment Policy
FDI Regime
Foreign Trade Regime
Tax Regime
Chapter - Industry Forecast Scenario
Oil And Gas Reserves
Oil Supply And Demand
Gas Supply And Demand
LNG
Refining And Oil Products Trade
Revenues/Import Costs
Table: Australia Oil & Gas – Historical Data & Forecasts
Other Energy
Table: Australia Other Energy – Historical data & Forecasts
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
Long-Term Energy Outlook
Chapter - Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Australia – Economic Activity
Chapter - Competitive Landscape
Executive Summary
Table: Key Players – Australia Oil And Gas Sector
Overview/State Role
Table: Key Upstream Players
Table: Key Downstream Players
Chapter - Company Monitor
Woodside Petroleum
Santos
BHP Billiton
Chevron – Summary
ConocoPhillips – Summary
Shell – Summary
ExxonMobil – Summary
CNOOC – Summary
BP – Summary
BG Group – Summary
Roc Oil – Summary
Inpex – Summary
Sinopec – Summary
Apache – Summary
PTTEP – Summary
Murphy – Summary
Arrow Energy – Summary
Pure Energy – Summary
Total – Summary
Hess – Summary
Others – Summary
Chapter - Glossary of Terms
Oil & Gas Ratings: Revised Methodology
Introduction
Ratings Overview
Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings: Structure
Indicators
Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings: Methodology
Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings: Methodology
Chapter - Oil & Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts
Global Oil Demand
Table: Global Oil Demand (000b/d)
Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d)
Global Oil Supply
Global Gas Demand
Table: Global Gas Demand (bcm)
Global Gas Supply
Table: Global Gas Production (bcm)
Regional Oil Demand
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Consumption (000b/d)
Regional Oil Supply
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Production (000b/d)
Regional Refining Capacity
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d)
Regional Gas Demand
Table: Asia Pacific Gas Consumption (bcm)
Regional Gas Supply
Table: Asia Pacific Gas Production (bcm)
Australia Country Overview
Methodology & Risks To Forecasts
Chapter - BMI Forecast Modelling
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Energy Industry
Cross Checks
Sources

For full details, please email keithw@cmsinfo.com

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