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Angola Oil & Gas Quarterly Report
Management Report
Published: April 2009
Pages: 100
Tables: For full details, please email keithw@cmsinfo.com
From: GBP 585.00 Buy Now!
Research from: Business Monitor International
Sector: Oil & Gas
The Angola Oil & Gas Report
Independent 10-year oil and gas industry forecasts for Angola.
Original oil and gas market research and oil and gas sector trend analysis for Angola’s oil and gas industry.
Competitive intelligence, Angolan oil and gas company rankings and SWOT analyses on international and domestic oil and gas companies in Angola.
The Angola Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source in 2008, and features latest available data and forecasts for Angola to end- covering headline indicators for oil & gas, LNG, coal and power; company rankings and competitive landscapes covering oil & gas exploration and production in Angola, refining, oil & gas distribution and fuels retailing; and analysis of latest industry developments, trends and regulatory issues within Angola.
Business Monitor International's Angola Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Angolan oil and gas industry.
Key Benefits of Report Benchmark BMI’s Independent 10-Year Oil & Gas Industry Forecast for Angola to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Angolan oil and gas market.
Target Business Opportunities & Risks in the Angolan Oil & Gas Sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Angola.
Exploit The Latest Competitive Angolan Oil & Gas Intelligence & Company SWOTS on your competitors and peers through company rankings by sales, market share and ownership structure - includes multi national and national companies in Angola.
CoverageExecutive Summary
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand, refining, coal and power, and primary energy, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
Regional Overview
Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports; overview of industry landscape and key players; assessment of business operating environment and latest regulatory developments.
Business Environment Rankings
A unique comparative study undertaken by BMI on the relative business climates across all regional markets covered. A rankings table highlights the merits of each market from an investor angle, giving scores for indicators such as Oil & Gas Supply and Demand Growth, Oil & Gas Reserves, Licensing Framework and the local Competitive Environment, as well as Economic and Political Risk.
Oil Market Outlook
BMI analyses and forecasts oil prices out to , monitoring supply and demand in terms of oil production and consumption across the region.
BMI 10-Year Industry Forecast
Historic data series and 10-year forecasts to end- for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (000 b/d)
Oil exports (000 b/d), value of oil exports (US$mn - BMI base case) - Oil price (US$/bbl, OPEC basket)
Value of oil exports at constant US$30/bbl and constant US$60/bbl (US$mn)
Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)
Gas exports/(imports) (bcm)
Value of gas exports/(imports) (US$mn); value of gas exports/(imports) at constant US$30/bbl and US$60/bbl (US$mn)
Value of petroleum exports (US$mn); value of petroleum exports at constant US$30/bbl and US$60/bbl (US$mn)
BMI 10-Year Macroeconomic Forecast
BMI forecasts for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Competitive Landscape & Rankings
Comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, oil production (‘000 b/d) and % market share, downstream capacity (‘000 b/d) and % market share.
Company Profiles & SWOTS
Company profiles, including SWOT analyses, senior executives and full contact details, business activity, products and services, foreign direct investments and projects.
Executive Summary
The latest Angola Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 4.06% of African regional oil demand by 2013, while providing 19.30% of supply. African regional oil use of 2.98mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 rose to 3.57mn b/d in 2007. It should average 3.65mn b/d in 2008 and then rise to around 4.17mn b/d by 2013. Regional oil production was 7.84mn b/d in 2001, and in 2007 averaged 10.31mn b/d. It is set to rise to 12.96mn b/d by 2013. In terms of natural gas, in 2007 the region consumed 100bcm, with demand of 183bcm targeted for 2013, representing 83.3% growth. Production of 193bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2007 should reach 358bcm in 2013 (+85.2%), which implies net exports rising from 94bcm in 2007 to 175bcm by the end of the period. In 2007, Angola consumed 2.51% of the region’s gas, while producing just 1.29%. By 2013, we expect its share of consumption to be 4.41%, with a 4.19% contribution to regional gas production.
In Q308, we estimate that the OPEC basket price averaged US$113.60 per barrel (bbl), down around 3.4% from the Q208 level. The OPEC basket price averaged US$112.41/bbl in August and US$97.16/bbl in September. In October, we are assuming an average of around US$113.30/bbl. The estimated Q308 average prices for the main marker blends are now US$115.67/bbl for Brent, US$117.22/bbl for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and US$113.43/bbl for Russian Urals (Mediterranean delivery). Our projections for 2008 as a whole are unchanged from the last oil market report. We are still assuming an OPEC basket price average of US$110/bbl for 2008. Based on recent price differentials, this implies Brent at US$113.33/bbl, WTI averaging US$114.58/bbl, and Urals at US$110.36/bbl. Our central view is that the OPEC basket price will fall from US$110/bbl in 2008 to US$96/bbl in 2009, before settling around US$90/bbl in 2010 onwards.
In terms of our refined products forecasts, the BMIcomposite (Rotterdam, Singapore and New York) global indicator price for unleaded gasoline is expected to average approximately US$117.50/bbl during 2008. Our jet forecast for 2008 is just under US$141/bbl, up from US$89/bbl in 2007. The 60% annual increase represents the second biggest for the key refined products. With gasoil, BMI is assuming a similar gain in 2008, to an average US$137/bbl. Naphtha is expected to exhibit more modest growth, rising from US$75/bbl to US$106/bbl (+41%). During 2009, we are expecting products prices to follow the underlying crude trend lower but to prove more resilient than the feedstock, implying a recovery in refining margins. In 2009, Gasoline is estimated at US$103/bbl, with jet falling to US$127/bbl. Gasoil is expected to average US$122/bbl, with naphtha slipping to US$91/bbl.
Angolan real GDP growth is now forecast by BMI at 12.2% for 2008, following 21.1% in 2007. We are assuming 10.6% growth in 2009, 11.2% in 2010, 8.5% in 2011, followed by 5.0% in 2012 and 6.8% in 2013. Dramatic economic growth is matched by spectacular oil demand growth, albeit from a low base. Consumption is set to rise from 70,000b/d in 2007 to 169,000b/d by 2013. State oil company Sonangol operates in partnership with various international oil companies (IOCs) and now accounts for less than 40% of the country's oil output. Thanks largely to IOC investment, oil output is forecast to increase from 1.72mn b/d in 2007 to 2.50mn b/d in 2013, with exports heading towards 2.33mn b/d. Only severe project slippage, brought about by tightness in the oil services segment, seems capable of weakening the volume growth trend. Gas production of an estimated 2.5bcm in 2007 should reach 15bcm by 2012. Consumption is expected to rise to 8bcm by the end of the forecast period, providing export potential of 7bcm.
Between 2007 and 2018, we are forecasting an increase in Angolan oil and gas liquids production of 33.5%, with volumes peaking at 2.55mn b/d in 2012, before slipping steadily to 2.30mn b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Oil consumption between 2007 and 2018 is set to increase by 451.6%, with growth slowing to an assumed 15.0% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 387,000b/d by 2018. Gas production is expected to rise to 33bcm by the end of the period. With demand rising by 548% between 2007 and 2018, there should be export potential increasing to 17bcm, in the form of LNG. Details of the new BMI 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report, which provides global, regional and country-specific projections.
Angola shares third place with Nigeria in BMI’s updated Upstream Business Environment rating, although just two points behind Gabon and therefore capable of a move higher. The county’s score benefits from an excellent oil and gas output growth outlook, respectable proven reserves, a large number of non state companies active in the upstream sector and decent licensing terms. There is potentially some threat from Republic of Congo (RoC) just one point below it, but Angola should be able to pull well clear over the medium term. The country is near the bottom of the league table in BMI’s updated Downstream Business Environment rating, with few high scores and progress further up the rankings unlikely over the near term. It is ranked equal seventh with Gabon, ahead only of RoC and Equatorial Guinea thanks to low scores for refining capacity, oil and gas consumption, and private company competition in the downstream segment.
Independent 10-year oil and gas industry forecasts for Angola.
Original oil and gas market research and oil and gas sector trend analysis for Angola’s oil and gas industry.
Competitive intelligence, Angolan oil and gas company rankings and SWOT analyses on international and domestic oil and gas companies in Angola.
The Angola Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source in 2008, and features latest available data and forecasts for Angola to end- covering headline indicators for oil & gas, LNG, coal and power; company rankings and competitive landscapes covering oil & gas exploration and production in Angola, refining, oil & gas distribution and fuels retailing; and analysis of latest industry developments, trends and regulatory issues within Angola.
Business Monitor International's Angola Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Angolan oil and gas industry.
Key Benefits of Report Benchmark BMI’s Independent 10-Year Oil & Gas Industry Forecast for Angola to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Angolan oil and gas market.
Target Business Opportunities & Risks in the Angolan Oil & Gas Sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Angola.
Exploit The Latest Competitive Angolan Oil & Gas Intelligence & Company SWOTS on your competitors and peers through company rankings by sales, market share and ownership structure - includes multi national and national companies in Angola.
CoverageExecutive Summary
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand, refining, coal and power, and primary energy, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.
Regional Overview
Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports; overview of industry landscape and key players; assessment of business operating environment and latest regulatory developments.
Business Environment Rankings
A unique comparative study undertaken by BMI on the relative business climates across all regional markets covered. A rankings table highlights the merits of each market from an investor angle, giving scores for indicators such as Oil & Gas Supply and Demand Growth, Oil & Gas Reserves, Licensing Framework and the local Competitive Environment, as well as Economic and Political Risk.
Oil Market Outlook
BMI analyses and forecasts oil prices out to , monitoring supply and demand in terms of oil production and consumption across the region.
BMI 10-Year Industry Forecast
Historic data series and 10-year forecasts to end- for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (000 b/d)
Oil exports (000 b/d), value of oil exports (US$mn - BMI base case) - Oil price (US$/bbl, OPEC basket)
Value of oil exports at constant US$30/bbl and constant US$60/bbl (US$mn)
Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)
Gas exports/(imports) (bcm)
Value of gas exports/(imports) (US$mn); value of gas exports/(imports) at constant US$30/bbl and US$60/bbl (US$mn)
Value of petroleum exports (US$mn); value of petroleum exports at constant US$30/bbl and US$60/bbl (US$mn)
BMI 10-Year Macroeconomic Forecast
BMI forecasts for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Competitive Landscape & Rankings
Comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, oil production (‘000 b/d) and % market share, downstream capacity (‘000 b/d) and % market share.
Company Profiles & SWOTS
Company profiles, including SWOT analyses, senior executives and full contact details, business activity, products and services, foreign direct investments and projects.
Executive Summary
The latest Angola Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 4.06% of African regional oil demand by 2013, while providing 19.30% of supply. African regional oil use of 2.98mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 rose to 3.57mn b/d in 2007. It should average 3.65mn b/d in 2008 and then rise to around 4.17mn b/d by 2013. Regional oil production was 7.84mn b/d in 2001, and in 2007 averaged 10.31mn b/d. It is set to rise to 12.96mn b/d by 2013. In terms of natural gas, in 2007 the region consumed 100bcm, with demand of 183bcm targeted for 2013, representing 83.3% growth. Production of 193bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2007 should reach 358bcm in 2013 (+85.2%), which implies net exports rising from 94bcm in 2007 to 175bcm by the end of the period. In 2007, Angola consumed 2.51% of the region’s gas, while producing just 1.29%. By 2013, we expect its share of consumption to be 4.41%, with a 4.19% contribution to regional gas production.
In Q308, we estimate that the OPEC basket price averaged US$113.60 per barrel (bbl), down around 3.4% from the Q208 level. The OPEC basket price averaged US$112.41/bbl in August and US$97.16/bbl in September. In October, we are assuming an average of around US$113.30/bbl. The estimated Q308 average prices for the main marker blends are now US$115.67/bbl for Brent, US$117.22/bbl for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and US$113.43/bbl for Russian Urals (Mediterranean delivery). Our projections for 2008 as a whole are unchanged from the last oil market report. We are still assuming an OPEC basket price average of US$110/bbl for 2008. Based on recent price differentials, this implies Brent at US$113.33/bbl, WTI averaging US$114.58/bbl, and Urals at US$110.36/bbl. Our central view is that the OPEC basket price will fall from US$110/bbl in 2008 to US$96/bbl in 2009, before settling around US$90/bbl in 2010 onwards.
In terms of our refined products forecasts, the BMIcomposite (Rotterdam, Singapore and New York) global indicator price for unleaded gasoline is expected to average approximately US$117.50/bbl during 2008. Our jet forecast for 2008 is just under US$141/bbl, up from US$89/bbl in 2007. The 60% annual increase represents the second biggest for the key refined products. With gasoil, BMI is assuming a similar gain in 2008, to an average US$137/bbl. Naphtha is expected to exhibit more modest growth, rising from US$75/bbl to US$106/bbl (+41%). During 2009, we are expecting products prices to follow the underlying crude trend lower but to prove more resilient than the feedstock, implying a recovery in refining margins. In 2009, Gasoline is estimated at US$103/bbl, with jet falling to US$127/bbl. Gasoil is expected to average US$122/bbl, with naphtha slipping to US$91/bbl.
Angolan real GDP growth is now forecast by BMI at 12.2% for 2008, following 21.1% in 2007. We are assuming 10.6% growth in 2009, 11.2% in 2010, 8.5% in 2011, followed by 5.0% in 2012 and 6.8% in 2013. Dramatic economic growth is matched by spectacular oil demand growth, albeit from a low base. Consumption is set to rise from 70,000b/d in 2007 to 169,000b/d by 2013. State oil company Sonangol operates in partnership with various international oil companies (IOCs) and now accounts for less than 40% of the country's oil output. Thanks largely to IOC investment, oil output is forecast to increase from 1.72mn b/d in 2007 to 2.50mn b/d in 2013, with exports heading towards 2.33mn b/d. Only severe project slippage, brought about by tightness in the oil services segment, seems capable of weakening the volume growth trend. Gas production of an estimated 2.5bcm in 2007 should reach 15bcm by 2012. Consumption is expected to rise to 8bcm by the end of the forecast period, providing export potential of 7bcm.
Between 2007 and 2018, we are forecasting an increase in Angolan oil and gas liquids production of 33.5%, with volumes peaking at 2.55mn b/d in 2012, before slipping steadily to 2.30mn b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Oil consumption between 2007 and 2018 is set to increase by 451.6%, with growth slowing to an assumed 15.0% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 387,000b/d by 2018. Gas production is expected to rise to 33bcm by the end of the period. With demand rising by 548% between 2007 and 2018, there should be export potential increasing to 17bcm, in the form of LNG. Details of the new BMI 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report, which provides global, regional and country-specific projections.
Angola shares third place with Nigeria in BMI’s updated Upstream Business Environment rating, although just two points behind Gabon and therefore capable of a move higher. The county’s score benefits from an excellent oil and gas output growth outlook, respectable proven reserves, a large number of non state companies active in the upstream sector and decent licensing terms. There is potentially some threat from Republic of Congo (RoC) just one point below it, but Angola should be able to pull well clear over the medium term. The country is near the bottom of the league table in BMI’s updated Downstream Business Environment rating, with few high scores and progress further up the rankings unlikely over the near term. It is ranked equal seventh with Gabon, ahead only of RoC and Equatorial Guinea thanks to low scores for refining capacity, oil and gas consumption, and private company competition in the downstream segment.